Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Investment community is too bearish on Pd, a strategic metal, it has strong growth dynamics looking forward. Future supplies will be physically constrained, whether from Russia and/or South Africa.</li>
<li>Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade. Production dominated by Russia and South Africa. Russian production sustainability under question</li>
<li>Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product. Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply  </li>
</ul>


Investment community is too bearish on Pd, a strategic metal, it has strong growth dynamics looking forward. Future supplies will be physically constrained, whether from Russia and/or South Africa.
Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade. Production dominated by Russia and South Africa. Russian production sustainability under question
Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product. Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply  


Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.</li>
<li>We conclude a couple of things from this.</li>
<li>Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.
We conclude a couple of things from this.
Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.


The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.</li><li>This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.</li><li>Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.</li></ul>

Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.

China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.</li><li>Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.</li><li>This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.</li><li>Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium</li><li>Go with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.</li></ul>

CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and PalladiumGo with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

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Palladium (XPD COMDTY)

Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...

Gaius King

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Trades: Short DXY, Long Palladium, Long Copper / Short Iron Ore. Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1

Steno Research

China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields. This makes it the perfect time to revisit...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week!I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience...

Steno Research

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

​Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...

Gaius King

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

Trades: Short DXY, Long Palladium, Long Copper / Short Iron Ore. Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1

Steno Research

China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields. This makes it the perfect time to revisit...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week!I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience...

Steno Research

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium

The Commodity Report

Investors underestimate growth potential of palladium due to supply constraints from Russia and South Africa, with demand expected to rise 26% in...