Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.</li><li>Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium</li><li>Go with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.</li></ul>

CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and PalladiumGo with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

Tsingshan Holding Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A Chinese metal giant is scrambling to manage massive losses from shorting nickel futures after the metal went on an unprecedented rally.</li>
<li>Tsingshan Holding Group Ltd., one of the world’s biggest nickel and stainless steel producers, came under mounting pressure to meet margin calls for its short position</li>
<li>The price of the metal, used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, surged as much as 250% in two days</li>
</ul>


A Chinese metal giant is scrambling to manage massive losses from shorting nickel futures after the metal went on an unprecedented rally.
Tsingshan Holding Group Ltd., one of the world’s biggest nickel and stainless steel producers, came under mounting pressure to meet margin calls for its short position
The price of the metal, used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, surged as much as 250% in two days


Chinese Metal Giant Faces Heavy Losses on Wild Nickel Ride

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Recent changes in Canada's M&amp;A rules have restricted critical metal companies from selling to Chinese investors</li><li>Chinese investors have played a key role in funding the exploration and development of copper porphyries, which are vital for global production</li><li>The uncertainty caused by these rules may lead companies to relocate outside of Canada, potentially harming the country's mining industry and economy</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Recent changes in Canada's M&amp;A rules have restricted critical metal companies from selling to Chinese investorsChinese investors have played a key role in funding the exploration and development of copper porphyries, which are vital for global productionThe uncertainty caused by these rules may lead companies to relocate outside of Canada, potentially harming the country's mining industry and economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Warren Irwin on Uranium, Canada & Contrarian Opportunities

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

United States

Nickel is a silvery-white lustrous metal with a slight golden tinge. Nickel belongs to the transition metals and is hard and ductile. Pure nickel, powdered to maximize the reactive surface area, shows a significant chemical activity, but larger pieces are slow to react with air under standard conditions because an oxide layer forms on the surface and prevents further corrosion.

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Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY)

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium

The Commodity Report

Chinese Metal Giant Faces Heavy Losses on Wild Nickel Ride

A Chinese metal giant is scrambling to manage massive losses from shorting nickel futures after the metal went on an unprecedented rally.

Caixin Global

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Warren Irwin on Uranium, Canada & Contrarian Opportunities

Overall, the global outlook for the natural resource industry, particularly in Canada, is being impacted by resource nationalism and M&A rules

Money of Mine

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium

The Commodity Report

Chinese Metal Giant Faces Heavy Losses on Wild Nickel Ride

A Chinese metal giant is scrambling to manage massive losses from shorting nickel futures after the metal went on an unprecedented rally.

Caixin Global

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Warren Irwin on Uranium, Canada & Contrarian Opportunities

Overall, the global outlook for the natural resource industry, particularly in Canada, is being impacted by resource nationalism and M&A rules

Money of Mine

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...