Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Financial markets are discounting more aggressive Fed easing in 2024 than is currently being embraced by forward guidance, suggesting recession fears have not been totally extinguished.</li>
<li>Courtesy of the Great Moderation, monetary policy gradualism remains intact, while markets are discounting a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate after the presidential election.</li>
<li>The outcome of the presidential election could impact Fed policy in 2025, as both contenders are embracing economic policies that will structurally boost inflation in varying degrees.</li>
</ul>


Financial markets are discounting more aggressive Fed easing in 2024 than is currently being embraced by forward guidance, suggesting recession fears have not been totally extinguished.
Courtesy of the Great Moderation, monetary policy gradualism remains intact, while markets are discounting a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate after the presidential election.
The outcome of the presidential election could impact Fed policy in 2025, as both contenders are embracing economic policies that will structurally boost inflation in varying degrees.


US Financial Markets: Getting Too Optimistic About Easier Fed Policy?

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Fed Powell clearly signaled a Sep 18 FOMC rate cut, but his analysis on the economy is softer than harder landing.</li>
<li>Though the option of 50bps was not ruled out, the comments from Powell and other Fed officials are more consistent with 25bps than 50bps. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market, which suggests we think will be improving even with mere 25bps cut this year.</li>
</ul>


Fed Powell clearly signaled a Sep 18 FOMC rate cut, but his analysis on the economy is softer than harder landing.
Though the option of 50bps was not ruled out, the comments from Powell and other Fed officials are more consistent with 25bps than 50bps. 
Nevertheless, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market, which suggests we think will be improving even with mere 25bps cut this year.


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.</li><li>Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.</li><li>The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.</li></ul>

Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.</li>
<li>Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.</li>
<li>Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.
Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.
Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 23 Aug 2024

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>What a July we’ve had.</li><li>The G3 central banks have now received plenty of labor market data that justifies cutting rates fairly aggressively.</li><li>In our opinion, this is a tricky trend to resist, even if market pricing does admittedly seem aggressive.</li></ul>

What a July we’ve had.The G3 central banks have now received plenty of labor market data that justifies cutting rates fairly aggressively.In our opinion, this is a tricky trend to resist, even if market pricing does admittedly seem aggressive.

Macro/Rates Watch: When the entire foundation rests on liquidity