Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

<ul>
<li>A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift's overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030. </li>
<li>But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer. </li>
<li>In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued</li>
</ul>


A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift's overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030. 
But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer. 
In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. stocks surged on Friday, driven by a decline in Treasury yields after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts are imminent</li>
<li>At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell stated that the "time has come" to adjust monetary policy, with the Fed open to a larger rate cut depending on incoming data</li>
<li>Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is the leading candidate to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a Nikkei poll </li>
</ul>


U.S. stocks surged on Friday, driven by a decline in Treasury yields after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts are imminent
At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell stated that the "time has come" to adjust monetary policy, with the Fed open to a larger rate cut depending on incoming data
Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is the leading candidate to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a Nikkei poll 


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally as Powell Signals Rate Cuts

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>This will be another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise, although the stock hasn’t been doing particularly well lately.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).

This will be another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise, although the stock hasn’t been doing particularly well lately.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Yamaha Motors Placement - A Relatively Small Cross-Shareholding Unwind

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.</li>
<li>The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.
The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard</a> has returned to the well with a NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>. This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.</li>
<li>Global travel outfit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17059:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Ltd (WEB AU)</a> has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.</li>
<li>The Kim family turn their focus to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-galleria-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39998:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS)</a> in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. </li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard has returned to the well with a NBIO for 7&amp;I (3382 JP). This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.
Global travel outfit Webjet Ltd (WEB AU) has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.
The Kim family turn their focus to Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS) in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow