Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

<ul>
<li>Given the current high stock prices relative to EPS compared to the past, attention should be paid to whether overseas investors shift to net selling if prices begin to decline.</li>
<li>In cases where treasury stock is sold again, it raises questions: Was it necessary to repurchase treasury stock amid cash flow concerns, or was this a forward-looking cash allocation decision?</li>
<li>As cash utilization, balance sheet restructuring, and capital profitability improvements gain attention, the number of outstanding shares will gradually decline as prompt share buybacks increase.</li>
</ul>


Given the current high stock prices relative to EPS compared to the past, attention should be paid to whether overseas investors shift to net selling if prices begin to decline.
In cases where treasury stock is sold again, it raises questions: Was it necessary to repurchase treasury stock amid cash flow concerns, or was this a forward-looking cash allocation decision?
As cash utilization, balance sheet restructuring, and capital profitability improvements gain attention, the number of outstanding shares will gradually decline as prompt share buybacks increase.


What Are Companies that Re-Sell Treasury Stock Thinking?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

NIHON KOHDEN CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells medical equipment, transformers, and power switches and devices.  The Company's products include testing equipment for cerebral nerve such as electroencephalographs, circulatory systems, diagnostic equipment, catheters, biogenic monitoring systems such as electrocardiographs used into patient monitoring systems.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-kohden-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7668:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Kohden (6849 JP)</a> reiterated previous guidance for overall revenue to be ¥240B in FY26 (+6.5% YoY). Domestic sales have been slightly revised downwards while overseas revenue witnessed upward revision.</li>
<li>North America to be near-term growth driver. H1FY26 revenue from North America increased 16% YoY to ¥22.3B. Expected to grow 18% YoY to ¥49.5B (55% of overseas sales) in FY26.</li>
<li>Nihon Kohden has a sustainable long-term growth prospect. The three-year business plan further enhances conviction on the same.</li>
</ul>



Nihon Kohden (6849 JP) reiterated previous guidance for overall revenue to be ¥240B in FY26 (+6.5% YoY). Domestic sales have been slightly revised downwards while overseas revenue witnessed upward revision.
North America to be near-term growth driver. H1FY26 revenue from North America increased 16% YoY to ¥22.3B. Expected to grow 18% YoY to ¥49.5B (55% of overseas sales) in FY26.
Nihon Kohden has a sustainable long-term growth prospect. The three-year business plan further enhances conviction on the same.


Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): Stable Japan, Growing US; ¥5B Share Buyback Plan Augurs Well

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>. At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  </li>
<li>There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.</li>
<li>This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.</li>
</ul>


Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP). At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  
There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.
This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.


[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

Japan Buybacks
Insights on Japanese buybacks

What Are Companies that Re-Sell Treasury Stock Thinking?

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 4 Nikkei article titled ““Share Buyback Forecasts ‘Too Conservative’: Over 17 Trillion Yen in...

Metrical Inc

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

SBI bought high early, then added more on successive steps down, buying their last 5% at 75-80% below their firs 20%. That left their average price...

Travis Lundy

What Are Companies that Re-Sell Treasury Stock Thinking?

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 4 Nikkei article titled ““Share Buyback Forecasts ‘Too Conservative’: Over 17 Trillion Yen in...

Metrical Inc

Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): Stable Japan, Growing US; ¥5B Share Buyback Plan Augurs Well

​Nihon Kohden reaffirms revenue guidance for FY26, with focus on growth in North America and sustainable long-term prospects. The share buyback...

Tina Banerjee

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

SBI bought high early, then added more on successive steps down, buying their last 5% at 75-80% below their firs 20%. That left their average price...

Travis Lundy

Nihon Kohden reaffirms revenue guidance for FY26, with focus on growth in North America and sustainable long-term prospects. The share buyback...