Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

COOKPAD Inc. operates websites for searching and posting cooking recipes. The company is also engaged in the business of advertising and marketing through its "COOKPAD" website and mobile website, "MOBA REPI", both of which contain tie-up and banner advertisements.

<ul>
<li>Hugely cash-rich <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cookpad-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23:1" rel="noopener">Cookpad Inc (2193 JP)</a> wouldn't hit my radar except for two things. 1) it was the target of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> chairman Maki-san a few years ago...</li>
<li>And 2) they did a huge buyback last year which pumped up the stock very bigly. </li>
<li>Maki-San appears long gone from the shares, but now they are doing another big buyback. Just as bigly. But there are new nuances this year.</li>
</ul>


Hugely cash-rich Cookpad Inc (2193 JP) wouldn't hit my radar except for two things. 1) it was the target of Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Maki-san a few years ago...
And 2) they did a huge buyback last year which pumped up the stock very bigly. 
Maki-San appears long gone from the shares, but now they are doing another big buyback. Just as bigly. But there are new nuances this year.


Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN

TOKYU REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that directly invests in real estate properties such as office and commercial buildings in the Tokyo area.  The Company also invests in securitized real estate products.

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3357:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Corp (9005 JP)</a> announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.</li>
<li>This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hankyu-hanshin-reit-8977-good-fundamental-news-a-bigly-buyback-and-cascading-flows-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward. </li>
<li>The main reason? Squeeze the 'share' price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That's not bad. The goal is a higher price.</li>
</ul>


Today, Tokyu Corp (9005 JP) announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.
This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed here. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward. 
The main reason? Squeeze the 'share' price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That's not bad. The goal is a higher price.


Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company invests in real estate properties such as commercial and office buildings.

<ul>
<li>3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a>. The REIT finally responded with a "Neutral" stance. </li>
<li>But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It's big. </li>
<li>And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn't rich, there may be a tailwind.</li>
</ul>


3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a "Neutral" stance. 
But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It's big. 
And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn't rich, there may be a tailwind.


Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) - Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

<ul>
<li>In February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. </li>
<li>Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.</li>
</ul>


In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. 
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.


Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

<ul>
<li>
 Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.</li>
<li>
 Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.</li>
<li>
De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



 Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.

 Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.

De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.


Japan Buybacks
Insights on Japanese buybacks

Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN

Tinycap Cookpad is doing another large buyback. It's big. Last year's bought 10% in a month. This year, float is that much smaller. And there are...

Travis Lundy

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

Tokyu bought 5% of Tokyu REIT from Sep24 to March25. They have now reloaded for another 5%. Float is not that big. And the REIT is under-levered,...

Travis Lundy

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) - Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

3DIP's Tender Offer for Hankyu Hanshin REIT is replaced by a Sponsor purchase over the next year of similar size (on the back of better earnings)....

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Idemitsu announced a decent-sized buyback. It is 20+% of Max Real World Float though crossholders may start selling next FY. There is timing to a...

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...

Mark Chadwick

Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN

Tinycap Cookpad is doing another large buyback. It's big. Last year's bought 10% in a month. This year, float is that much smaller. And there are...

Travis Lundy

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

Tokyu bought 5% of Tokyu REIT from Sep24 to March25. They have now reloaded for another 5%. Float is not that big. And the REIT is under-levered,...

Travis Lundy

Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) - Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come

3DIP's Tender Offer for Hankyu Hanshin REIT is replaced by a Sponsor purchase over the next year of similar size (on the back of better earnings)....

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Idemitsu announced a decent-sized buyback. It is 20+% of Max Real World Float though crossholders may start selling next FY. There is timing to a...

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

​Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...

Mark Chadwick

Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...