Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK Ltd

Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY24 (Dec year-end) earnings results with full-year gross profit [GP] of ¥4,331mil (-13.9% YoY), an operating profit [OP] of ¥3mil (-99.8% YoY) on sales of ¥5,906mil (-8.0% YoY).</li><li>Given the Q3 performance, the firm revised down its full-year forecasts on 11 November, however, the full-year results fell short of the revised guidance of OP of ¥510mil on sales of ¥6,600mil.</li><li>MTP’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.</li></ul>

Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY24 (Dec year-end) earnings results with full-year gross profit [GP] of ¥4,331mil (-13.9% YoY), an operating profit [OP] of ¥3mil (-99.8% YoY) on sales of ¥5,906mil (-8.0% YoY).Given the Q3 performance, the firm revised down its full-year forecasts on 11 November, however, the full-year results fell short of the revised guidance of OP of ¥510mil on sales of ¥6,600mil.MTP’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (3902 JP): Research Update

<ul><li>MDV revised down its full-year FY24 guidance (discussed in more details on p.5) given the Q3 result [Q1~Q3 gross profit [GP] of ¥3,055mil (-12.8% YoY), operating loss of -¥140mil (vs FY23 Q3 OP of ¥1,111mil) on sales of ¥4,125mil (-8.1% YoY)], due to (1) the delay to the onboarding of the firm’s cloud-based health check system solution Alpha Salus as the debugging process continued through to September, and (2) a delay in mobilising potential users of the new content (no-contact vital sensing for cats) for MDV’s personal health management app Karteco, as the planned large-scale advertising campaign was pushed back following a delay in the launch of the content.</li><li>The firm is guiding for FY24 annual dividend of ¥6.5/share (unchanged from FY23) and generates a dividend pay-out ratio of 138.0% based on the revised FY24 EPS forecast of ¥4.71.</li></ul>

MDV revised down its full-year FY24 guidance (discussed in more details on p.5) given the Q3 result [Q1~Q3 gross profit [GP] of ¥3,055mil (-12.8% YoY), operating loss of -¥140mil (vs FY23 Q3 OP of ¥1,111mil) on sales of ¥4,125mil (-8.1% YoY)], due to (1) the delay to the onboarding of the firm’s cloud-based health check system solution Alpha Salus as the debugging process continued through to September, and (2) a delay in mobilising potential users of the new content (no-contact vital sensing for cats) for MDV’s personal health management app Karteco, as the planned large-scale advertising campaign was pushed back following a delay in the launch of the content.The firm is guiding for FY24 annual dividend of ¥6.5/share (unchanged from FY23) and generates a dividend pay-out ratio of 138.0% based on the revised FY24 EPS forecast of ¥4.71.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> - which currently owns 32.4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> - announced it would buy another 1.91mm shares over 7mos.</li>
<li>This market purchase would lift them to ~37.4% by year-end. Interestingly, they plan to go through the one-third level without a Tender Offer. But their buying history hasn't been great. </li>
<li>SBI bought 20% in 2020. It fell by half. They bought another 5%. Then it dropped 50%, so they bought another 5%. Now -25% so they are buying another 5%.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) - which currently owns 32.4% of Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) - announced it would buy another 1.91mm shares over 7mos.
This market purchase would lift them to ~37.4% by year-end. Interestingly, they plan to go through the one-third level without a Tender Offer. But their buying history hasn't been great. 
SBI bought 20% in 2020. It fell by half. They bought another 5%. Then it dropped 50%, so they bought another 5%. Now -25% so they are buying another 5%.


Medical Data Vision (3902) - SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocables (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a>) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. </li>
</ul>



JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 


JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

Japan

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

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Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (3902 JP): Research Update

Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY24 (Dec year-end) earnings results with full-year gross profit [GP] of ¥4,331mil (-13.9% YoY), an operating...

Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update

MDV revised down its full-year FY24 guidance (discussed in more details on p.5) given the Q3 result [Q1~Q3 gross profit [GP] of ¥3,055mil (-12.8%...

Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Medical Data Vision (3902) - SBI Upping Their Stake AGAIN In The Market

SBI's buying history on Medical Data Vision hasn't been great, but the company is growing and SBI continues to buy on market. The company is...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

While the offer is light, it will succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a low 7.1% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer runs...

Arun George

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