Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Topcorn Corporation manufactures and sells measuring equipment and medical equipment primarily for ophthalmologist use. The Company also manufactures industrial products including projectors and optical devices.

<ul>
<li>The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.</li>
<li>After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.</li>
<li>Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thinking-about-topcon-7732-and-the-new-meti-enabled-bad-cop-good-cop-routine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bad Cops</a>" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.</li>
</ul>


The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.
After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.
Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "Bad Cops" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.


[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

PROTO CORPORATION provides information about new and pre-owned cars, motorcycles, and parts through magazines and the Internet.  The Company also provides information such as restaurants, golf courses, and ski resorts.  Proto Corp's Web site allows its users to research automobile pricing and insurance.

<ul>
<li>Late on the 17th, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a> released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.</li>
<li>The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and...</li>
<li>...that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.</li>
</ul>


Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and...
...that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.


[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) - Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton...

NISSAN TOKYO SALES HOLDINGS CO., LTD sells new and pre-owned passenger cars and commercialvehicles produced by Nissan Motor mainly in central Tokyo area. The Company also sells car parts and provides maintenance service. NISSAN TOKYO SALES HOLDINGS also operates office building rental, car leasing service, and insurance service.  The Company's subsidiaries sell Jaguar and Renault cars.

<ul>
<li>On 12 March 2025, a minor Twitter account @nanahoshiuk started in January announced a website <a href="https://shiftnissantokyo.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shiftnissantokyo.com</a> where they point out the value proposition in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-tokyo-sales-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1800:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The writeup is by a UK company led by a young man with an equity-investing career, some experience at an activist shop, who now runs a "Shareholder Activism Outsourcing Service."</li>
<li>The content sounds familiar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nissan-tokyo-sales-holdings-8291-jp-large-offering-on-tiny-cap-with-deep-value" target="_blank" rel="noopener">my piece in December</a>, has a few unpolished edges, but clearly points out the value proposition. The stock deserves a re-visit. My comments are below.</li>
</ul>


On 12 March 2025, a minor Twitter account @nanahoshiuk started in January announced a website shiftnissantokyo.com where they point out the value proposition in Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291 JP). 
The writeup is by a UK company led by a young man with an equity-investing career, some experience at an activist shop, who now runs a "Shareholder Activism Outsourcing Service."
The content sounds familiar to my piece in December, has a few unpolished edges, but clearly points out the value proposition. The stock deserves a re-visit. My comments are below.


[Activism Japan] Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291) Gets An 'Outsourced Activist' but the Value Prop Remains

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.</li>
<li>We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.</li>
<li>If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.</li>
</ul>



Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.


Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Investor activism and undervaluation are driving renewed interest in the steel sector, with Aichi and Yodogawa Steel facing pressure to unlock shareholder value.</li>
<li>Asset Value increased their stake in Sharing Tech. It ticks a lot of boxes: strong growth, high profitability, robust cash reserves, &amp; shareholder-friendly policies.</li>
<li>Nippon Active Value increased its stake in ASKA Pharma due to its strong fundamentals, undervaluation, profitability, and potential for shareholder value enhancement through cross-shareholding reductions.</li>
</ul>


Investor activism and undervaluation are driving renewed interest in the steel sector, with Aichi and Yodogawa Steel facing pressure to unlock shareholder value.
Asset Value increased their stake in Sharing Tech. It ticks a lot of boxes: strong growth, high profitability, robust cash reserves, &amp; shareholder-friendly policies.
Nippon Active Value increased its stake in ASKA Pharma due to its strong fundamentals, undervaluation, profitability, and potential for shareholder value enhancement through cross-shareholding reductions.


Japan Activist Briefs | Aichi Steel, Yodogawa Steel

Governance & Activism in Japanese Markets

Japan Activism
Governance & Activism in Japanese Markets

[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) - Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton...

Kaname Capital has filed a petition for injunction tot he Nagoya Court, asking the court to oblige the Proto Board to withdraw its opinion and...

Travis Lundy

[Activism Japan] Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291) Gets An 'Outsourced Activist' but the Value Prop Remains

Nissan Tokyo Sales Hldgs saw insurers sell 21% of the company in December and the company bought back half. That upped BVPS and EPS and the shares...

Travis Lundy

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Activist Briefs | Aichi Steel, Yodogawa Steel

Investor activism in steel sector leads to pressure on Aichi and Yodogawa Steel; Asset Value and Nippon Active Value increase stakes in Sharing...

Mark Chadwick

[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

The Topcon Deal is out. ¥3,300/share. This may or may not please activists. It is light given extreme confidence in the eyecare biz. But if...

Travis Lundy

[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) - Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton...

Kaname Capital has filed a petition for injunction tot he Nagoya Court, asking the court to oblige the Proto Board to withdraw its opinion and...

Travis Lundy

[Activism Japan] Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291) Gets An 'Outsourced Activist' but the Value Prop Remains

Nissan Tokyo Sales Hldgs saw insurers sell 21% of the company in December and the company bought back half. That upped BVPS and EPS and the shares...

Travis Lundy

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Activist Briefs | Aichi Steel, Yodogawa Steel

​Investor activism in steel sector leads to pressure on Aichi and Yodogawa Steel; Asset Value and Nippon Active Value increase stakes in Sharing...

Mark Chadwick

Investor activism in steel sector leads to pressure on Aichi and Yodogawa Steel; Asset Value and Nippon Active Value increase stakes in Sharing...