Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

<ul>
<li>Last year into early 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> - partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners - took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.</li>
<li>In January, I explored the situation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fuji-soft-9749-much-better-governance-process-but-the-stock-has-run-too-far" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.</li>
<li>Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.</li>
</ul>


Last year into early 2024, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) - partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners - took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.
In January, I explored the situation here suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.
Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) - Relief from Activist Pressure

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>'s strategic position in the domestic market, coupled with untapped potential in international markets, makes the company an interesting prospect for the long-term.</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners’ July 2024 letter praising Sapporo’s intention to divest its real estate business has reignited investor interest in Sapporo as a play focusing on Japan’s investor activism.</li>
<li>Therefore, Sapporo seems interesting both in the short term and long term, as we think shares could break out to a new high with trading volumes showing signs of improvement.</li>
</ul>



Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)'s strategic position in the domestic market, coupled with untapped potential in international markets, makes the company an interesting prospect for the long-term.
3D Investment Partners’ July 2024 letter praising Sapporo’s intention to divest its real estate business has reignited investor interest in Sapporo as a play focusing on Japan’s investor activism.
Therefore, Sapporo seems interesting both in the short term and long term, as we think shares could break out to a new high with trading volumes showing signs of improvement.


Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

EXEDY Corporation manufactures drivetrain products for automobiles, industrial vehicles, and construction machinery.  The Company's products include manual clutches, torque converters, power shift transmissions, and hydraulic clutches. Exedy has its subsidiaries in South Korea, Australia, the US and the UK.

<ul>
<li>In late May, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced it would sell its 37% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. The market dropped. But that was an opportunity. </li>
<li>There was an announcement, a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, the offering, and more buyback to come. On 30 May, I said "Buy the deal, buy in the market. It's cheap and vulnerable."</li>
<li>Exedy is up 21% since. On 17 June, activist Murakami-san's group went over 5%. Then they bought more. Now they have 15%. Or more. Still cheap. Still vulnerable. </li>
</ul>


In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The market dropped. But that was an opportunity. 
There was an announcement, a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, the offering, and more buyback to come. On 30 May, I said "Buy the deal, buy in the market. It's cheap and vulnerable."
Exedy is up 21% since. On 17 June, activist Murakami-san's group went over 5%. Then they bought more. Now they have 15%. Or more. Still cheap. Still vulnerable. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy - STILL Room to Run

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>A week ago, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.</li>
<li>But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.</li>
<li>I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against. </li>
</ul>


A week ago, the Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.
But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.
I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

Daidoh Ltd processes woolen fabrics and clothing for women and men. The Company manufactures mainly jackets, suits, blouses, shirts, pants, skirts, and other clothing.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daidoh-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18256:1" rel="noopener">Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP)</a> saw an activist "win" at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.</li>
<li>¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.</li>
<li>Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. </li>
</ul>



Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist "win" at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

Governance & Activism in Japanese Markets

Japan Activism
Governance & Activism in Japanese Markets

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) - Relief from Activist Pressure

The Nikkei carried an article last night saying KKR would take over activist-pressured Fuji Soft (9749). Founders may roll their stake back in....

Travis Lundy

Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

Sapporo Holdings presents an intriguing LT opportunity with potential in both domestic and international markets. It is also attracting interest...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy - STILL Room to Run

Murakami-san now owns c16% of Exedy. Exedy had 10mos to do the rest of its buyback. It is 60% done in Month 1. Accretion is faster than expected....

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

Keisei has underperformed OLC by 12% since the day AFTER I wrote this piece. It has underperformed by 30+% since Feb highs. Keisei is down 35%...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

Daidoh was a rare activist win at this season's AGMs. The Board responded by implementing a new div policy to pay out cash. The stock popped. The...

Travis Lundy