HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.</li>
<li>A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.</li>
<li>China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.</li>
</ul>


The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.
A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.
China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.


China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Cybin Inc. is a life sciences company. The Company focuses on psychedelic drug development, unique delivery mechanisms, improved novel compounds, and protocols. Cybin serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>Compass pushes back timeline for COMP360 Phase 3 readouts and cuts staff by 30%.</li><li>Compass Pathways’ (NASDAQ: CMPS) 3Q24 earnings announcement last week was dominated by the news that, not for the first time, the company has pushed back the timeline for the readout of its first single-dose study (COMP005) of the Phase 3 trial for its lead psilocybin-based drug candidate for treatment-resistant depression (TRD), COMP360, by a couple of quarters to 2Q25 from 4Q24.</li><li>The readout for the second two-dose study (COMP006) has been delayed by at least one year from mid-2025 to 2H26. </li></ul>

Compass pushes back timeline for COMP360 Phase 3 readouts and cuts staff by 30%.Compass Pathways’ (NASDAQ: CMPS) 3Q24 earnings announcement last week was dominated by the news that, not for the first time, the company has pushed back the timeline for the readout of its first single-dose study (COMP005) of the Phase 3 trial for its lead psilocybin-based drug candidate for treatment-resistant depression (TRD), COMP360, by a couple of quarters to 2Q25 from 4Q24.The readout for the second two-dose study (COMP006) has been delayed by at least one year from mid-2025 to 2H26. 

Cybin, Inc. - Why Compass Pathways Is No Compass for Cybin's Progression Prospects

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.

<ul><li>We upgrade Lupin (LPC) to ADD from REDUCE with a revised TP of INR 2,440 (31x Q3FY27E, up from INR 1,950 at 28x Q1FY27E)</li><li>Our outlook is based on key factors: (1) traction in gSpiriva (launched in Aug’23), which we expect to remain a limited competition opportunity for the next 2 years</li><li>(2) steady momentum in the key respiratory franchise products (Brovana, Xopenex HFA) as well as in other key products (Levothyroxine), which should offset the impact of increased competition in Albuterol HFA</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We upgrade Lupin (LPC) to ADD from REDUCE with a revised TP of INR 2,440 (31x Q3FY27E, up from INR 1,950 at 28x Q1FY27E)Our outlook is based on key factors: (1) traction in gSpiriva (launched in Aug’23), which we expect to remain a limited competition opportunity for the next 2 years(2) steady momentum in the key respiratory franchise products (Brovana, Xopenex HFA) as well as in other key products (Levothyroxine), which should offset the impact of increased competition in Albuterol HFAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lupin: US and India on Steady Footing, Upgrade to ADD

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

Aster DM Healthcare Limited provides health care services. The Company offers cardiology, cardiac and spine surgery, oncology, orthopedics, neurology and urology, oncology, gastroenterology and hepatology services. Aster DM Healthcare serves patients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> plans to add ~1,800 beds by FY27, aligning with its strategic roadmap to expand its footprint and become a top-three healthcare player in India.</li>
<li>Operating EBITDA margin has improved to 21.4% in Q2FY25 as compared to 16.8% in Q2FY24. The company expects continuous margin expansion over the next two-three years.</li>
<li>The company is expected to report high teens revenue growth through FY27, with bottomline growth outpacing topline. Aster DM shares are trading at NTM EV/EBITDA of 24.9x, lower than peers.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) plans to add ~1,800 beds by FY27, aligning with its strategic roadmap to expand its footprint and become a top-three healthcare player in India.
Operating EBITDA margin has improved to 21.4% in Q2FY25 as compared to 16.8% in Q2FY24. The company expects continuous margin expansion over the next two-three years.
The company is expected to report high teens revenue growth through FY27, with bottomline growth outpacing topline. Aster DM shares are trading at NTM EV/EBITDA of 24.9x, lower than peers.


2025 High Conviction: Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)- Focus on India Augurs Well

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.</li><li>ABBV acquired a private Alzheimer’s biotech, boosting neuro developers PRTA, VIGL, and ALEC.</li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.ABBV acquired a private Alzheimer’s biotech, boosting neuro developers PRTA, VIGL, and ALEC.

Biopharma Week in Review - November 4, 2024

Health Care
Several billion reasons

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cybin, Inc. - Why Compass Pathways Is No Compass for Cybin's Progression Prospects

To conserve cash to fund its COMP360 program, Compass also announced a corporate restructuring involving the downsizing of staff by ~30% as well as...

Water Tower Research

Lupin: US and India on Steady Footing, Upgrade to ADD

We upgrade Lupin (LPC) to ADD from REDUCE with a revised TP of INR 2,440 (31x Q3FY27E, up from INR 1,950 at 28x Q1FY27E)

HDFC Securities

2025 High Conviction: Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)- Focus on India Augurs Well

Aster DM Healthcare reported EBITDA margin of 21.4% in Q2FY25 vs. 6.8% in Q2FY24. Margin expansion is expected to continue over the next 2-3...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review - November 4, 2024

Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.

Water Tower Research

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

​China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cybin, Inc. - Why Compass Pathways Is No Compass for Cybin's Progression Prospects

To conserve cash to fund its COMP360 program, Compass also announced a corporate restructuring involving the downsizing of staff by ~30% as well as...

Water Tower Research

Lupin: US and India on Steady Footing, Upgrade to ADD

We upgrade Lupin (LPC) to ADD from REDUCE with a revised TP of INR 2,440 (31x Q3FY27E, up from INR 1,950 at 28x Q1FY27E)

HDFC Securities

2025 High Conviction: Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)- Focus on India Augurs Well

​Aster DM Healthcare reported EBITDA margin of 21.4% in Q2FY25 vs. 6.8% in Q2FY24. Margin expansion is expected to continue over the next 2-3...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review - November 4, 2024

Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.

Water Tower Research

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Aster DM Healthcare reported EBITDA margin of 21.4% in Q2FY25 vs. 6.8% in Q2FY24. Margin expansion is expected to continue over the next 2-3...