Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.</li><li>The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.</li><li>Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.</li></ul>

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

LANXESS AG manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company focuses on the development, manufacturing, and marketing of plastics, rubber, intermediates, and specialty chemicals. LANXESS offers its products around the world.

<ul><li>Lanxess has seen a decline in share price due to various factors, but recent developments indicate a potential return on investment of over 30% in the next 3 years</li><li>CEO Matthias Zachert has focused on selling off cyclical and competitively disadvantaged businesses to focus on higher value-added products, strengthening the company's position</li><li>Lanxess received a significant cash inflow from the sale of Currenta and Warren Buffet's 3% stake in the company shows confidence in its transformation and future potential</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lanxess has seen a decline in share price due to various factors, but recent developments indicate a potential return on investment of over 30% in the next 3 yearsCEO Matthias Zachert has focused on selling off cyclical and competitively disadvantaged businesses to focus on higher value-added products, strengthening the company's positionLanxess received a significant cash inflow from the sale of Currenta and Warren Buffet's 3% stake in the company shows confidence in its transformation and future potentialThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lanxess Ag (LNXSY) - Friday, Aug 23, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025</li><li>China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit</li><li>Global trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hitGlobal trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.</li><li>The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU) C : Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces.</li>
<li>Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappointing and surprising given the results of the logs, the inflow of gas while drilling, the analysis of the retrieved cores (with indication of hydrocarbons) and the fact that oil samples were recovered from this interval.</li>
<li>The well is now being flowed while ADX is running a downhole production logging tool to analyse the contribution of the various sections of the well to flow. </li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU) C : Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces.
Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappointing and surprising given the results of the logs, the inflow of gas while drilling, the analysis of the retrieved cores (with indication of hydrocarbons) and the fact that oil samples were recovered from this interval.
The well is now being flowed while ADX is running a downhole production logging tool to analyse the contribution of the various sections of the well to flow. 
