Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul><li>While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.</li><li>The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.</li><li>FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.</li></ul>

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

<ul><li>PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).</li><li>We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.</li><li>The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.</li></ul>

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.

Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

<ul><li>The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding remaining construction, and the funding plan).</li><li>TOP’s share price is trading at a higher-than-usual ERP to compensate for these risks.</li><li>We have revised down our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 24-28% due to higher interest expenses from a bond issuance and/or borrowings, resulting in negative 2-year core EPS growth (-20% CAGR) that underperforms the sector. </li></ul>

The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding remaining construction, and the funding plan).TOP’s share price is trading at a higher-than-usual ERP to compensate for these risks.We have revised down our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 24-28% due to higher interest expenses from a bond issuance and/or borrowings, resulting in negative 2-year core EPS growth (-20% CAGR) that underperforms the sector. 

Thai Oil - The CFP Entails Higher than Previously Expected Risks

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.</li>
<li>For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.


U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025</li><li>Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts</li><li>Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecastsMarket projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Energy
Insights in the Energy Space

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While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

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Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower...

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Thai Oil - The CFP Entails Higher than Previously Expected Risks

The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding...

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U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

US oil and gas rig count steady at 589 for the week ending 20/Dec, as US oil drillers added one rig while US gas producers cut one rig. They added...

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Wall Street analysts discuss feedback and question policy on oil prices, with a consensus view for 2025 ranging from $60 to $95 amidst bearish...

At Any Rate

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

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Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - The CFP Entails Higher than Previously Expected Risks

The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding...

Krungthai XSpring

U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

​US oil and gas rig count steady at 589 for the week ending 20/Dec, as US oil drillers added one rig while US gas producers cut one rig. They added...

Mint Finance

Global Commodities: The biggest pushback

Wall Street analysts discuss feedback and question policy on oil prices, with a consensus view for 2025 ranging from $60 to $95 amidst bearish...

At Any Rate

US oil and gas rig count steady at 589 for the week ending 20/Dec, as US oil drillers added one rig while US gas producers cut one rig. They added...