External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>German snap elections an opportunity for step-change in fiscal policy, but political divisions will be hard to overcome</li><li>The Scholz government is on its last legs. Following the dramatic firing of the finance minister last night, the coalition government is on the cusp of a no confidence vote which looks set to lead to a snap federal election in early 2025.</li><li>The key bone of contention in the coalition was the approach to budgetary discipline amid what has become a slow-burning crisis in German industry, with the SPD in favour of a suspension of fiscal rules to deal with the crisis, with coalition partner FDP firmly opposed. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

German snap elections an opportunity for step-change in fiscal policy, but political divisions will be hard to overcomeThe Scholz government is on its last legs. Following the dramatic firing of the finance minister last night, the coalition government is on the cusp of a no confidence vote which looks set to lead to a snap federal election in early 2025.The key bone of contention in the coalition was the approach to budgetary discipline amid what has become a slow-burning crisis in German industry, with the SPD in favour of a suspension of fiscal rules to deal with the crisis, with coalition partner FDP firmly opposed. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Germany - Traffic light coalition turns red

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Sapphire produced 27,000 tonnes of copper and 21,500 tonnes of zinc, similar to last quarter</li><li>Matzah saw a slight increase in copper equivalent production and maintained processing rate at 3.6 million tonnes per annum</li><li>Mateo had a planned shutdown and lower head grades, but net debt decreased by US $51 million to US 345 million, with group EBITDA of US 121 million for the quarter</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sapphire produced 27,000 tonnes of copper and 21,500 tonnes of zinc, similar to last quarterMatzah saw a slight increase in copper equivalent production and maintained processing rate at 3.6 million tonnes per annumMateo had a planned shutdown and lower head grades, but net debt decreased by US $51 million to US 345 million, with group EBITDA of US 121 million for the quarterThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

<ul><li>Yancoal’s (YAL) 3Q24 operating data are slightly better than our expectation, with attributable production / sales volume increasing 10%/21% YoY (improved from -4%/+1% in 2Q24).</li><li>Blended ASP dropped 14% YoY in 3Q24, which is largely in line with the market trend.</li><li>We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.78bn of revenue in 3Q24 (+5% YoY; +15% QoQ). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s (YAL) 3Q24 operating data are slightly better than our expectation, with attributable production / sales volume increasing 10%/21% YoY (improved from -4%/+1% in 2Q24).Blended ASP dropped 14% YoY in 3Q24, which is largely in line with the market trend.We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.78bn of revenue in 3Q24 (+5% YoY; +15% QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 3Q24 Sales Volume Accelerated to +21% YoY

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>Recent policy changes in China have sparked a surge in commodity prices and stock markets</li><li>China's focus on stimulating the real economy over asset prices sets them apart from Western policies</li><li>Chinese government has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to boost liquidity and investment</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent policy changes in China have sparked a surge in commodity prices and stock marketsChina's focus on stimulating the real economy over asset prices sets them apart from Western policiesChinese government has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to boost liquidity and investmentThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Yancoal Australia Ltd. provides mining services. The Company mines, sells, exports, and markets clean and coking coal. Yancoal operates internationally.

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The two big surprises are the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The two big surprises are the inclusion of Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) and Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed