Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

Arrow Exploration Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

Arrow Exploration Corp. is a public junior oil and gas company. The Company focuses in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in Colombia and in Western Canada.

<ul>
<li>M-HZ7, the first horizontal well at Mateguafa Attic, has been brought onstream in the C9 zone.</li>
<li>It is producing on a small choke (25/128) at a restricted gross oil rate of 1,694 bbl/d (847 bbl/d net to Arrow), with oil quality of 30.6° API and a 4% water cut.</li>
<li>This initial rate is approximately double that of the M-6 vertical well.</li>
</ul>


M-HZ7, the first horizontal well at Mateguafa Attic, has been brought onstream in the C9 zone.
It is producing on a small choke (25/128) at a restricted gross oil rate of 1,694 bbl/d (847 bbl/d net to Arrow), with oil quality of 30.6° API and a 4% water cut.
This initial rate is approximately double that of the M-6 vertical well.


Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): High flow rate at first Mateguafa Hz well firms-up the upside case

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp-0103ceb3-3087-43a7-8e88-cf54392e4429" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41542:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK CN)</a>, which was up +150%, closely followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaris-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40176:1" rel="noopener">Solaris Resources (SLS CN)</a>, which gained 139% for the year. </li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.</li>
</ul>


The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.
Our best performer was Arras Minerals (ARK CN), which was up +150%, closely followed by Solaris Resources (SLS CN), which gained 139% for the year. 
Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.</li>
<li>The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.</li>
<li>Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.</li>
</ul>


EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.


Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

<ul>
<li>The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.</li>
<li>Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.</li>
<li>Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.</li>
</ul>


The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.
Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.
Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.


Colombia
Insights on Colombia

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): High flow rate at first Mateguafa Hz well firms-up the upside case

It is producing on a small choke (25/128) at a restricted gross oil rate of 1,694 bbl/d (847 bbl/d net to Arrow), with oil quality of 30.6° API and...

Auctus Advisors

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): High flow rate at first Mateguafa Hz well firms-up the upside case

It is producing on a small choke (25/128) at a restricted gross oil rate of 1,694 bbl/d (847 bbl/d net to Arrow), with oil quality of 30.6° API and...

Auctus Advisors

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

​The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...