External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

<ul><li>Yancoal’s (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates.</li><li>Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation.</li><li>We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.5bn of revenue in 2Q24 (-20% YoY; +3% QoQ). YAL maintains the full-year sales volume guidance unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates.Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation.We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.5bn of revenue in 2Q24 (-20% YoY; +3% QoQ). YAL maintains the full-year sales volume guidance unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 2Q24 Sales Volume +1%; Full-Year Target Still Achievable

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Commodities

Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock usually occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds or coal seams. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure. Coal is composed primarily of carbon along with variable quantities of other elements, chiefly hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen. A fossil fuel, coal forms when dead plant matter is converted into peat, which in turn is converted into lignite, then sub-bituminous coal, after that bituminous coal, and lastly anthracite. This involves biological and geological processes that take place over a long period.

<ul><li>Recent changes in Canada's M&amp;A rules have restricted critical metal companies from selling to Chinese investors</li><li>Chinese investors have played a key role in funding the exploration and development of copper porphyries, which are vital for global production</li><li>The uncertainty caused by these rules may lead companies to relocate outside of Canada, potentially harming the country's mining industry and economy</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent changes in Canada's M&amp;A rules have restricted critical metal companies from selling to Chinese investorsChinese investors have played a key role in funding the exploration and development of copper porphyries, which are vital for global productionThe uncertainty caused by these rules may lead companies to relocate outside of Canada, potentially harming the country's mining industry and economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Warren Irwin on Uranium, Canada & Contrarian Opportunities

<ul><li>We believe the suspension of Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine (owned by Anglo American [AAL LN, NR]) in Queensland, Australia, following the underground fire in late Jun, would last for several months.</li><li>We estimate the suspension will result in ~0.8% reduction of global metallurgical coal export volume, which will likely translate into higher met coal price and serve as a positive catalyst for Yancoal (YAL).</li><li>We expect higher spot prices will boost YAL’s ASP in both 2H24E and 1H25E when some contracts are to be repriced over the coming months. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the suspension of Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine (owned by Anglo American [AAL LN, NR]) in Queensland, Australia, following the underground fire in late Jun, would last for several months.We estimate the suspension will result in ~0.8% reduction of global metallurgical coal export volume, which will likely translate into higher met coal price and serve as a positive catalyst for Yancoal (YAL).We expect higher spot prices will boost YAL’s ASP in both 2H24E and 1H25E when some contracts are to be repriced over the coming months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Higher Coal Price Assumptions After the Fire Incident

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Mongolian Mining Corporation produces coking coal.  The Company operates the Ukhaa Khudag mine in Mongolia.

<ul>
<li>Following our piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fushan-energy-639-hk-coking-coal-prices-to-strengthen-with-anglo-accident" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150683" rel="noopener">Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident</a>, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> as another play with growth potential. </li>
<li>With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0221/2024022100574.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX</a>, it is net cash. </li>
<li>Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its <a href="https://erdene.com/site/assets/files/4243/erd_q3_2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia</a>. </li>
</ul>


Following our piece, Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident, we highlight Mongolian Mining (975 HK) as another play with growth potential. 
With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX, it is net cash. 
Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia. 


Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australi, Telstra, Insurance Australia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australi, Telstra, Insurance Australia.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australia

Coal
Insights on Coal and Coal Companies

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 2Q24 Sales Volume +1%; Full-Year Target Still Achievable

Yancoal’s (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse...

CMB International

Warren Irwin on Uranium, Canada & Contrarian Opportunities

Overall, the global outlook for the natural resource industry, particularly in Canada, is being impacted by resource nationalism and M&A rules

Money of Mine

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Higher Coal Price Assumptions After the Fire Incident

We expect higher spot prices will boost YAL’s ASP in both 2H24E and 1H25E when some contracts are to be repriced over the coming months.

CMB International

Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

We initiate on another coking coal play in Mongolia MMC 975 HK, with upside to the coking coal price trading at 5.6x PE and 2.7x EV-EBITDA and...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australia

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM