Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Basic-Fit | urged by Impactive Capital to commence share buyback • InPost / DHL | DHL enters transformative deal on Iberic Peninsula with Portugal’s CTT • SBM Offshore | sells FPSO Liza Destiny to ExxonMobil for USD 535m</li></ul>

In this edition: • Basic-Fit | urged by Impactive Capital to commence share buyback • InPost / DHL | DHL enters transformative deal on Iberic Peninsula with Portugal’s CTT • SBM Offshore | sells FPSO Liza Destiny to ExxonMobil for USD 535m

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 20 December 2024 (Basic-Fit | InPost / DHL | SBM Offshore)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 20th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 20th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 20th): Tencent, AIA, Anta Sports Products

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>It is difficult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.</li>
<li>Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.</li>
</ul>


It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.</li>
<li>Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.</li>
<li>Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.</li>
</ul>


Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) - Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

SPAR Group, Inc. provides clients a wide array of marketing and sales solutions through a single point of contact.  The Company serves grocery stores, drug stores, and mass merchandiser stores with retail merchandising.  SPAR also offers incentive marketing, teleservices, database marketing, and marketing research services.

<ul><li>Highwire Capital's acquisition of SPAR Group at $2.50/share faces challenges due to financing issues and founder stock sales.</li><li>Marlowe resumed stock buybacks, purchasing £1.9m worth of shares, with £22m remaining in buyback authorization.</li><li>Pacific Current Group announced a tender offer at A$12/share, implying a 30% discount to pro-forma NAV.</li></ul>

Highwire Capital's acquisition of SPAR Group at $2.50/share faces challenges due to financing issues and founder stock sales.Marlowe resumed stock buybacks, purchasing £1.9m worth of shares, with £22m remaining in buyback authorization.Pacific Current Group announced a tender offer at A$12/share, implying a 30% discount to pro-forma NAV.

SSI Weekly Highlights: Merger Arbs, Acquisition Challenges, and Strategic Buybacks in Focus

Buybacks
Buy them before they do

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 20 December 2024 (Basic-Fit | InPost / DHL | SBM Offshore)

In this edition: • Basic-Fit | urged by Impactive Capital to commence share buyback • InPost / DHL | DHL enters transformative deal on Iberic...

The IDEA!

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 20th): Tencent, AIA, Anta Sports Products

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) - Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Shin-Etsu Chem will buy 1% of shares in a Tender Offer Buyback. This highlights ShinEtsu is cash-rich, has crossholders who are selling and will...

Travis Lundy

SSI Weekly Highlights: Merger Arbs, Acquisition Challenges, and Strategic Buybacks in Focus

Highwire Capital's acquisition of SPAR Group at $2.50/share faces challenges due to financing issues and founder stock sales.

Special Situation Investments

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 20 December 2024 (Basic-Fit | InPost / DHL | SBM Offshore)

In this edition: • Basic-Fit | urged by Impactive Capital to commence share buyback • InPost / DHL | DHL enters transformative deal on Iberic...

The IDEA!

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 20th): Tencent, AIA, Anta Sports Products

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

​Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) - Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Shin-Etsu Chem will buy 1% of shares in a Tender Offer Buyback. This highlights ShinEtsu is cash-rich, has crossholders who are selling and will...

Travis Lundy

SSI Weekly Highlights: Merger Arbs, Acquisition Challenges, and Strategic Buybacks in Focus

Highwire Capital's acquisition of SPAR Group at $2.50/share faces challenges due to financing issues and founder stock sales.

Special Situation Investments

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...