Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Markets fell with Russell -0.63%, SPX -0.71%, Nasdaq -0.93% and SOX -3.11%. UST10 rose 0.88% and the yen weakened to Y157.48. Commodoties fell.</li>
<li>CRWD -11.1%, MSFT -0.74%, and power semis (Wolfspeed -7.17%) fell due to a CrowdStrike IT outage and Trump-related EV concerns respectively, showing sector vulnerability.</li>
<li>Stocks with China exposure fell sharply due to US export restrictions, with Disco -23.1%, TEL -18.1%, Screen -17.8%. Intuitive Surgical surged on strong Q2 results and da Vinci 5 launch.</li>
</ul>


Markets fell with Russell -0.63%, SPX -0.71%, Nasdaq -0.93% and SOX -3.11%. UST10 rose 0.88% and the yen weakened to Y157.48. Commodoties fell.
CRWD -11.1%, MSFT -0.74%, and power semis (Wolfspeed -7.17%) fell due to a CrowdStrike IT outage and Trump-related EV concerns respectively, showing sector vulnerability.
Stocks with China exposure fell sharply due to US export restrictions, with Disco -23.1%, TEL -18.1%, Screen -17.8%. Intuitive Surgical surged on strong Q2 results and da Vinci 5 launch.


Japan Morning Connection – 22 July, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

<ul><li>Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 3,350/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C business, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses</li><li>RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment</li><li>Consumer business segments remained resilient and supported earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 3,350/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C business, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businessesRIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segmentConsumer business segments remained resilient and supported earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiary</li><li>Healthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)</li><li>Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiaryHealthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold has signalled a false breakout and is likely to tread water for a couple of months.</li>
<li>More strength ahead for the Japanese Yen and weakness for the Japanese markets?</li>
<li>Copper signals further lows to come unless it rallies soon</li>
</ul>


Gold has signalled a false breakout and is likely to tread water for a couple of months.
More strength ahead for the Japanese Yen and weakness for the Japanese markets?
Copper signals further lows to come unless it rallies soon


False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Ultra Tech Cement Ltd. produces a wide range of cement products. This Company represents the cement operations of Larsen & Toubro which were spun-off into a separate entity in which Grasim Industries holds a majority interest.

<ul><li>Overall industry outlook remains positive and we expect the company to grow its Volume/Revenue/EBITDA/APAT at 11%/11%/20%/23% CAGR over FY24-FY26E.</li><li>This will be driven by the robust demand, improvement in prices, upcoming new capacity, ramping up of recently commissioned capacity, benefit of lower commodity prices, higher blending ratio, and increasing share of green energy.</li><li>We increase our target multiple considering higher growth visibility and further improvement in market share and effeciency gains.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall industry outlook remains positive and we expect the company to grow its Volume/Revenue/EBITDA/APAT at 11%/11%/20%/23% CAGR over FY24-FY26E.This will be driven by the robust demand, improvement in prices, upcoming new capacity, ramping up of recently commissioned capacity, benefit of lower commodity prices, higher blending ratio, and increasing share of green energy.We increase our target multiple considering higher growth visibility and further improvement in market share and effeciency gains.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UltraTech Cement Limited - Increasing Scale Efficiently; Maintain BUY

Asia (APAC)
Insights on Asia Pacific (APAC)

Japan Morning Connection – 22 July, 2024

Tech sector drops amid IT outage; US-China trade tensions hit China-exposed stocks; healthcare gains on strong results; insurance sector suffers...

Andrew Jackson

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the...

HDFC Securities

False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.

Rikki Malik

UltraTech Cement Limited - Increasing Scale Efficiently; Maintain BUY

Overall industry outlook remains positive and we expect the company to grow its Volume/Revenue/EBITDA/APAT at 11%/11%/20%/23% CAGR over FY24-FY26E.

Axis Direct

Japan Morning Connection – 22 July, 2024

Tech sector drops amid IT outage; US-China trade tensions hit China-exposed stocks; healthcare gains on strong results; insurance sector suffers...

Andrew Jackson

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the...

HDFC Securities

False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

​Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.

Rikki Malik

UltraTech Cement Limited - Increasing Scale Efficiently; Maintain BUY

Overall industry outlook remains positive and we expect the company to grow its Volume/Revenue/EBITDA/APAT at 11%/11%/20%/23% CAGR over FY24-FY26E.

Axis Direct

Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.