Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters, resulting in card closures.</li><li>Thus, CIF growth was slower, though in line with our expectations at 13/2% YoY/QoQ. SBIC lost market share in terms of CIF by ~110/30bps YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Spends growth was slower as corporate spends derailed owing to regulatory changes. Thus, SBIC lost ~40/50bps YoY/QoQ in spends market share. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters, resulting in card closures.Thus, CIF growth was slower, though in line with our expectations at 13/2% YoY/QoQ. SBIC lost market share in terms of CIF by ~110/30bps YoY/QoQ.Spends growth was slower as corporate spends derailed owing to regulatory changes. Thus, SBIC lost ~40/50bps YoY/QoQ in spends market share. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd. - Earnings Surprise Led by Lower Opex

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending</li><li>However, the company continues to grapple with elevated credit costs (7.6% of receivables), which is unlikely to normalise in FY25, as per management</li><li>NIMs continued to drift lower at 10.9% (Q3FY24: 11.3%), however, FY25 NIMs are likely to stabilise given a steady mix of receivables (revolve + instalment loans at 61%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spendingHowever, the company continues to grapple with elevated credit costs (7.6% of receivables), which is unlikely to normalise in FY25, as per managementNIMs continued to drift lower at 10.9% (Q3FY24: 11.3%), however, FY25 NIMs are likely to stabilise given a steady mix of receivables (revolve + instalment loans at 61%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards and Payment Services - Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

India

Muthoot Finance Ltd. is a gold financing company. The Company provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans primarily to individuals who possess gold jewelry but can't access formal credit lines.

Sundaram Finance Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in India. The Company offers savings products, car and commercial vehicle finance, insurance products, home loans and logistics services. Sundaram is based in Chennai, India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited is a finance company that provides finance to prospective buyers of Mahindra range of utility vehicles and tractors.  The Company extends finance through hire purchase/loan and lease modes.  Mahindra & Mahindra has a network of branches located across India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

CreditAccess Grameen Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers income generation, home improvement, emergency, and family welfare loans, as well as retail finance, insurance, and healthcare programs. CreditAccess Grameen serves clients in India.

Manappuram Finance Ltd. is a non-banking finance company. The Company offers loans against gold collateral, business loans, vehicle loans, foreign exchange and money transfer services; and sells gold coins.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited operates as a financial services provider. The Company offers vehicle finance, home equity loans, investment advisory, stock broking, and other financial services to customers.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN)

Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers business, family, education, emergency, housing, and livestock loans. Ujjivan Financial Services serves customers throughout India.

Equitas Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services such as lending, housing finance, vehicle loan, and borrowing services. Equitas Holdings conducts its business in India.

MAS Financial Services Limited provides retail financial services. The Company offers loans and other financial services for homes, two wheeler vehicles, industrial machinery, properties, agricultural use, commercial vehicles, and insurance products. MAS Financial Services offers its services to small and medium enterprises in India.

Credit Acceptance Corporation provides funding, receivables management, collection, sales training, and related services to automobile dealers.  The Company provides indirect financing for buyers with limited access to traditional sources of consumer credit.  Credit Acceptance operates in the United States.

OneMain Holdings Inc. provides consumer financial services. The Company provides responsible loan products to customers through its branch network and through its centralized operations. OneMain Holdings operates in the United States.

ACOM CO., LTD is a consumer financing company.  The Company provides financial services such as secured/unsecured loans and consumer installment credits.

Nelnet, Inc. is a consumer finance company that provides products and services to participants in the education finance process.  The Company originates, holds, and services education loans and offers a broad range of financial services and technology-based products, including student loan origination and lending, student loan, and guarantee services.

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. owns and operates pawn stores. The Company focuses on serving cash and credit constrained consumers through its retail pawn locations. FirstCash Holdings serves customers worldwide.

SLM Corporation, commonly known as Sallie Mae, provides education funding, originating and servicing of U.S. government guaranteed and private student loans.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides debt management services and business and technical products to a range of clients including colleges, universities and loan guarantors.

Samsung Card Co., Ltd. offers credit card services such as issuing cards, one time payments, installments, and cash advance services. The Company also provides other financial services such as leasing and loan services.

Credit Saison Co., Ltd. is a consumer credit company.  The Company provides financial services such as credit cards, consumer installment credits, loan guarantees, loans, consignment operations, and leases.

Ally Financial Inc. is a automotive financial services company powered by a direct banking franchise. The Company operates as a financial holding company.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited operates as a commercial lending company. The Company provides car title, personal, agricultural vehicle, land title, and other loan products. Muangthai Capital serves customers in Thailand.

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

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SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd. - Earnings Surprise Led by Lower Opex

SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters,...

Axis Direct

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

SBI Cards and Payment Services - Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

There could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap150 Index in Sep. Apart from the passive trackers, there are huge active funds tracking the index....

Brian Freitas

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