Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters, resulting in card closures.</li><li>Thus, CIF growth was slower, though in line with our expectations at 13/2% YoY/QoQ. SBIC lost market share in terms of CIF by ~110/30bps YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Spends growth was slower as corporate spends derailed owing to regulatory changes. Thus, SBIC lost ~40/50bps YoY/QoQ in spends market share. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters, resulting in card closures.Thus, CIF growth was slower, though in line with our expectations at 13/2% YoY/QoQ. SBIC lost market share in terms of CIF by ~110/30bps YoY/QoQ.Spends growth was slower as corporate spends derailed owing to regulatory changes. Thus, SBIC lost ~40/50bps YoY/QoQ in spends market share. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd. - Earnings Surprise Led by Lower Opex

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending</li><li>However, the company continues to grapple with elevated credit costs (7.6% of receivables), which is unlikely to normalise in FY25, as per management</li><li>NIMs continued to drift lower at 10.9% (Q3FY24: 11.3%), however, FY25 NIMs are likely to stabilise given a steady mix of receivables (revolve + instalment loans at 61%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spendingHowever, the company continues to grapple with elevated credit costs (7.6% of receivables), which is unlikely to normalise in FY25, as per managementNIMs continued to drift lower at 10.9% (Q3FY24: 11.3%), however, FY25 NIMs are likely to stabilise given a steady mix of receivables (revolve + instalment loans at 61%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards and Payment Services - Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We screen our coverage universe for earnings disappointments, EPS downgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental shorts.</li>
<li>Stocks in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-cards-payment-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28662:1" rel="noopener">SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-inox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a>. </li>
<li>Credit Cost for SBI is expected to remain elevated, PVR management seems to be misreading consumer preferences, and Macro uncertainties cloud ESCORTS.</li>
</ul>


We screen our coverage universe for earnings disappointments, EPS downgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental shorts.
Stocks in focus include SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN) , Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN), and Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN). 
Credit Cost for SBI is expected to remain elevated, PVR management seems to be misreading consumer preferences, and Macro uncertainties cloud ESCORTS.


Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

India

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

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SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd. - Earnings Surprise Led by Lower Opex

SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters,...

Axis Direct

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

SBI Cards and Payment Services - Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

This Insight highlights fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd. - Earnings Surprise Led by Lower Opex

SBIC’s new card issuances reported a slight slowdown, with gross card addition at ~10.3 Lc cards (-25/-6% YoY/QoQ), owing to tightening of filters,...

Axis Direct

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

SBI Cards and Payment Services - Recovery Pushed Back Further. Maintain ADD

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) Q4FY24 earnings were ahead of our estimates, largely due to lower opex on account of lower corporate spending

HDFC Securities

Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

This Insight highlights ​fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.

Pranav Bhavsar

This Insight highlights fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.