Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

<ul>
<li>In Q2FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> clocked record-high quarterly revenue at INR66.8B (+15% YoY), and EBITDA margin of 26%, driven by double-digit growth across India, North America, and South Africa.</li>
<li>U.S. business reported highest ever revenue of $229M. India revenue is up 10% YoY, driven by continued market beating performance in branded prescription and trade generics businesses.</li>
<li>Cipla raised FY24 EBITDA margin guidance from 23% to 23% to 24% with bias towards the higher end. The company started FY24 with an EBITDA margin guidance of 21–22%.</li>
</ul>


In Q2FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) clocked record-high quarterly revenue at INR66.8B (+15% YoY), and EBITDA margin of 26%, driven by double-digit growth across India, North America, and South Africa.
U.S. business reported highest ever revenue of $229M. India revenue is up 10% YoY, driven by continued market beating performance in branded prescription and trade generics businesses.
Cipla raised FY24 EBITDA margin guidance from 23% to 23% to 24% with bias towards the higher end. The company started FY24 with an EBITDA margin guidance of 21–22%.


2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Margin Guidance Raised

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Revolution Medicines, Inc. operates as an oncology company. The Company discovers novel targeted therapies to inhibit elusive frontier targets within notorious growth and survival pathways. Revolution Medicines serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Sanofi, a French multinational healthcare company, terminated the SHP2 inhibitor RMC-4630 development and commercialization agreement in 2022. The company did not disclose any specific reasons.</li>
<li>However, Revolution Medicines regained all global rights granted to Sanofi, and management reiterated that RMC-4630 is a potentially important RAS oral inhibitor in the company’s pipeline.</li>
<li>A US-based oncology company completed a public equity offering in March and raised ~$324M of net proceeds. Moreover, Revolution Medicines acquired EQRx and secured access to $1B+ of capital. </li>
</ul>


Sanofi, a French multinational healthcare company, terminated the SHP2 inhibitor RMC-4630 development and commercialization agreement in 2022. The company did not disclose any specific reasons.
However, Revolution Medicines regained all global rights granted to Sanofi, and management reiterated that RMC-4630 is a potentially important RAS oral inhibitor in the company’s pipeline.
A US-based oncology company completed a public equity offering in March and raised ~$324M of net proceeds. Moreover, Revolution Medicines acquired EQRx and secured access to $1B+ of capital. 


2023 High Conviction Update: Revolution Medicines, RVMD/EQRx Deal Adds $1B+ Of Capital

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.  </li>
<li>Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.</li>
<li>Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.</li>
</ul>



Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.  
Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.
Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.


2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Polycab India Limited produces and distributes electronic equipment. The Company offers cables, wires, fans, switches, lighting, junction boxes, circular lids, and pumps. Polycab India serves customers in India.   

<ul>
<li>We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.</li>
<li>The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.</li>
<li>At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a "SELL" rating. Polycab's current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.</li>
</ul>


We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a "SELL" rating. Polycab's current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.


2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

<ul>
<li>IN Q4FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> reported highest ever US business revenue of $204M, up 27% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by expansion in market share of key launches.</li>
<li>Lead peptide asset Lanreotide injection, launched in Q4FY22, is consistently gaining market share. The product currently has market share of 17%, up from 14.1% in Q3FY23 and 9.6% in Q2FY23.</li>
<li>Ex-COVID, India business revenue increased 16% YoY, driven by chronic branded prescription portfolio. FY23 marks the second consecutive year of market beating growth of Cipla’s chronic portfolio.</li>
</ul>


IN Q4FY23, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) reported highest ever US business revenue of $204M, up 27% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by expansion in market share of key launches.
Lead peptide asset Lanreotide injection, launched in Q4FY22, is consistently gaining market share. The product currently has market share of 17%, up from 14.1% in Q3FY23 and 9.6% in Q2FY23.
Ex-COVID, India business revenue increased 16% YoY, driven by chronic branded prescription portfolio. FY23 marks the second consecutive year of market beating growth of Cipla’s chronic portfolio.


2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Strong US Business Drove Q4 Result Amid Uncertainty