Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.</li>
<li>The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.</li>
<li>Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. </li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.
The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.
Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. 


Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.


SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.</li>
<li>Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.</li>
<li>Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.
Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.
Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.


2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> reported 1QFY06/2025 results which saw the company generating its first-ever Adj. operating profit, earlier than we expected.</li>
<li>The company has begun capitalising its software assets (decline in R&amp;D costs as % of revenue) and this coupled with fall in S&amp;M costs have contributed to profits.</li>
<li>The corporate paying customers surpassed more than 200k for the first time and we expect freee’s earnings to continue to improve going forward.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 1QFY06/2025 results which saw the company generating its first-ever Adj. operating profit, earlier than we expected.
The company has begun capitalising its software assets (decline in R&amp;D costs as % of revenue) and this coupled with fall in S&amp;M costs have contributed to profits.
The corporate paying customers surpassed more than 200k for the first time and we expect freee’s earnings to continue to improve going forward.


Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2025 results on Monday which saw strong improvement in earnings with a beat. The company also revised its full-year guidance upwards.</li>
<li>The labour markets globally have continued to trend downwards, particularly in the US while web traffic on Indeed and Glassdoor has fallen significantly.</li>
<li>• Recruit’s monetisation efforts coupled with measures to reduce costs have paid off, however, we don’t expect labour markets to improve anytime soon, posing significant threat.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 2QFY03/2025 results on Monday which saw strong improvement in earnings with a beat. The company also revised its full-year guidance upwards.
The labour markets globally have continued to trend downwards, particularly in the US while web traffic on Indeed and Glassdoor has fallen significantly.
• Recruit’s monetisation efforts coupled with measures to reduce costs have paid off, however, we don’t expect labour markets to improve anytime soon, posing significant threat.


Recruit Holdings: Another Quarter of Strong Earnings Despite Labour Markets Trending Downwards

A chartered management accountant with more than 10 years of rich experience in investment research and financial analysis. Worked as an equity analyst for one of the world's largest asset managers with USD2.5trn in AUM covering numerous sectors including chemicals, retail, tech, autos, telco, real-estate and banks, globally. Experienced in fundamental equity research, industry research, commodity studies, forensic accounting, and due diligence reviews.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA
Equity Analyst
• LightStream Research

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected

The key highlight of freee's 1Q results was the first-ever Adj. operating profits for the company, earlier than we expected. The Corporate Paying...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

​Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected

The key highlight of freee's 1Q results was the first-ever Adj. operating profits for the company, earlier than we expected. The Corporate Paying...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Recruit Holdings: Another Quarter of Strong Earnings Despite Labour Markets Trending Downwards

​Recruit's 2Q earnings beat expectations and raised full-year guidance. Global labor market trends downwards, however, Recruit's monetisation...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Recruit's 2Q earnings beat expectations and raised full-year guidance. Global labor market trends downwards, however, Recruit's monetisation...