Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth in Jun-21 was close to expectations overall. Rapid Q2 growth in the UK is the rebound from output being thrown down so much harder than in other countries. The UK remains a global laggard, albeit to less of an extent as it re-opens.</li>
<li>Food, accommodation and health drove the June rise. Unfortunately, restaurant bookings and vaccinations rates dropped in July, which should unwind this support. Most other sectors are only limping up from still depressed levels.</li>
<li>The relatively hawkish BoE was at peak optimism on 5 August, in our view. We see the disappointment of its forecast in Q2 repeating during H2, delaying the first rate hike into 2023. Persistent damage from lockdown and covid seasonality drive that view.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth in Jun-21 was close to expectations overall. Rapid Q2 growth in the UK is the rebound from output being thrown down so much harder than in other countries. The UK remains a global laggard, albeit to less of an extent as it re-opens.
Food, accommodation and health drove the June rise. Unfortunately, restaurant bookings and vaccinations rates dropped in July, which should unwind this support. Most other sectors are only limping up from still depressed levels.
The relatively hawkish BoE was at peak optimism on 5 August, in our view. We see the disappointment of its forecast in Q2 repeating during H2, delaying the first rate hike into 2023. Persistent damage from lockdown and covid seasonality drive that view.


UK: Rebound Passed Peak Pace