External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>The UK economy has been facing a series of challenges in recent weeks.</li><li>Economic data has been disappointing, with weak unemployment, earnings, GDP, industrial production, manufacturing, services, and trade balance.</li><li>As I write this report, 10-year UK government bond yields have fallen by 20 basis points (bps) in the past two days. </li></ul>

The UK economy has been facing a series of challenges in recent weeks.Economic data has been disappointing, with weak unemployment, earnings, GDP, industrial production, manufacturing, services, and trade balance.As I write this report, 10-year UK government bond yields have fallen by 20 basis points (bps) in the past two days. 

Part Four: The Sharply Slowing UK Economy

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.</li><li>Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.</li><li>Are international investors even involved in China anymore?</li></ul>

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.Are international investors even involved in China anymore?

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

Macroeconomics

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.

Scotiabank

Part Four: The Sharply Slowing UK Economy

The UK economy has been facing a series of challenges in recent weeks. Economic data has been disappointing, with weak unemployment, earnings, GDP,...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate. Positioning in CNY markets...

Steno Research

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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