Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.</li><li>Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.</li><li>Are international investors even involved in China anymore?</li></ul>

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.Are international investors even involved in China anymore?

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Broader USD bullish sentiment continues to fade, according to CFTC data for the week through Tuesday March 4th.</li><li>IMM data shows speculative USD-bullish sentiment retreating for a seventh, successive week, with aggregate USD net longs down by two thirds to just under USD10bn over the past month alone.</li><li>This is the lowest bull bet on the USD among Non-Commercial accounts since late October.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Broader USD bullish sentiment continues to fade, according to CFTC data for the week through Tuesday March 4th.IMM data shows speculative USD-bullish sentiment retreating for a seventh, successive week, with aggregate USD net longs down by two thirds to just under USD10bn over the past month alone.This is the lowest bull bet on the USD among Non-Commercial accounts since late October.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades, Traders Increasingly Bullish on JPY

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.</li><li>Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.</li><li>That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate. Positioning in CNY markets...

Steno Research

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades, Traders Increasingly Bullish on JPY

IMM data shows speculative USD-bullish sentiment retreating for a seventh, successive week, with aggregate USD net longs down by two thirds to just...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

Combined net USD long positioning is down by USD16.5bn in the latest week’s data to USD21bn, a third of the bullish net position seen just seven...

Scotiabank

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