Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth in May-21 was half the consensus forecast as it slowed to 0.8% m-o-m despite the ongoing relaxation of lockdown restrictions. Declines were widespread among sectors still below pre-covid peaks, offsetting the arts and hospitality rebound.</li>
<li>As with the re-opening last year, an initial surge in output has rapidly lost momentum. We remain pessimistic about the damage done to the economy during the lockdowns, which will become clearer as the recovery slows this year.</li>
<li>The UK’s relatively long and strict lockdown has made it a global laggard, and daily mobility data imply the recovery is also now underperforming. The change in health secretary may reduce risks of further damage in Q4, but legacy costs will remain.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth in May-21 was half the consensus forecast as it slowed to 0.8% m-o-m despite the ongoing relaxation of lockdown restrictions. Declines were widespread among sectors still below pre-covid peaks, offsetting the arts and hospitality rebound.
As with the re-opening last year, an initial surge in output has rapidly lost momentum. We remain pessimistic about the damage done to the economy during the lockdowns, which will become clearer as the recovery slows this year.
The UK’s relatively long and strict lockdown has made it a global laggard, and daily mobility data imply the recovery is also now underperforming. The change in health secretary may reduce risks of further damage in Q4, but legacy costs will remain.


UK: Recovery Loses Momentum Early