Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

What Are The Bond Markets Really Saying About The Slowing World Economy?

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP recovered another 2.3% of its relatively deep depression in April as the economy continued to re-open. Output remains 4% below its pre-covid peak while almost as many businesses claim to have permanently closed by the end of May.</li>
<li>We remain pessimistic about the damage done to the economy during the lockdowns, which will only become clear as the recovery slows or falters later in the year. </li>
<li>Rapidly rising Covid infection rates appear to be prolonging UK restrictions, especially for international travel, consistent with the reaction function underlying the weakness concentrated in our H2 forecasts. The UK’s vaccinations aren’t fuelling outperformance.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP recovered another 2.3% of its relatively deep depression in April as the economy continued to re-open. Output remains 4% below its pre-covid peak while almost as many businesses claim to have permanently closed by the end of May.
We remain pessimistic about the damage done to the economy during the lockdowns, which will only become clear as the recovery slows or falters later in the year. 
Rapidly rising Covid infection rates appear to be prolonging UK restrictions, especially for international travel, consistent with the reaction function underlying the weakness concentrated in our H2 forecasts. The UK’s vaccinations aren’t fuelling outperformance.


UK: Economy Enjoys Its Longer Leash