Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

UK: Still Defying Dismally Dire Expectations

UK: Mar-20 Sales Reveal Sectoral Level Hits

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The UK manufacturing PMI only dipped 3.9-points in March, but it dived 15-points to 32.6 in Apr-20 as supply-shortages during the shutdown belatedly bit activity. Historical correlations may not hold but imply an 8% decline in the official data.</em></li>
<li><em>Daily industrial gas demand has plunged 10% to the end of April, consistent with my manufacturing forecast. The depths appeared worse earlier in the month, but some activity has resumed recently. Energy will also directly weigh on GDP growth.</em></li>
</ul>


The UK manufacturing PMI only dipped 3.9-points in March, but it dived 15-points to 32.6 in Apr-20 as supply-shortages during the shutdown belatedly bit activity. Historical correlations may not hold but imply an 8% decline in the official data.
Daily industrial gas demand has plunged 10% to the end of April, consistent with my manufacturing forecast. The depths appeared worse earlier in the month, but some activity has resumed recently. Energy will also directly weigh on GDP growth.


UK: IP Slams into Shutdown During Apr-20