Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Industrial Bounce-Back Begins in May-20

UK: 40% Recovery in May-20 Split Unevenly

UK: Mar-20 Sales Reveal Sectoral Level Hits

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li>Retail sales collapsed by 18% m-o-m in Apr-20 (15% ex-fuel), taking the total decline to 22%. The overall hit appears to closely coincide with the rise in universal credit declarations, rather than preceding it at all.</li>
<li>Although the April hit was 3.5 times the size of March, this average scaling factor is distorted by the abrupt turn around for supermarkets and department stores. The average scaling factor is otherwise about 1.8, and less in the hardest-hit areas.</li>
<li>I have trimmed my Q2 GDP forecast by another 1pp to -11.5% q-o-q, which contains an average scaling factor of 1.7. The BoE’s -25% Q2 projection requires something nearer 4x, with little payback, despite many businesses reopening.</li>
</ul>


Retail sales collapsed by 18% m-o-m in Apr-20 (15% ex-fuel), taking the total decline to 22%. The overall hit appears to closely coincide with the rise in universal credit declarations, rather than preceding it at all.
Although the April hit was 3.5 times the size of March, this average scaling factor is distorted by the abrupt turn around for supermarkets and department stores. The average scaling factor is otherwise about 1.8, and less in the hardest-hit areas.
I have trimmed my Q2 GDP forecast by another 1pp to -11.5% q-o-q, which contains an average scaling factor of 1.7. The BoE’s -25% Q2 projection requires something nearer 4x, with little payback, despite many businesses reopening.


UK: Scaling the Apr-20 Sales Hit to GDP