Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

UK: Industrial Bounce-Back Begins in May-20

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK GDP collapsed by 20.4% m-o-m in April-20 as the economy endured the most intense phase of total lockdown. The 3.5 times greater fall in April than March matched the move in retail sales, confirming its usefulness for gauging the shock.</em></li>
<li><em>Sectors will recover at different times and extents, though, led by the industrial sectors initially. Support from this source helps prevent the depths of economic depression being as bad in Q2 as some feared, although I now track -20% q-o-q.</em></li>
</ul>


UK GDP collapsed by 20.4% m-o-m in April-20 as the economy endured the most intense phase of total lockdown. The 3.5 times greater fall in April than March matched the move in retail sales, confirming its usefulness for gauging the shock.
Sectors will recover at different times and extents, though, led by the industrial sectors initially. Support from this source helps prevent the depths of economic depression being as bad in Q2 as some feared, although I now track -20% q-o-q.


UK: GDP Mirrors Retail Crash in April-20