Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded by 8.1-points in May-20 to 40.7, while the output balance rose 18.7-points to 35. Resurgent demand from industry for gas offtakes from the national grid suggests this is not just a sentiment shift.</em></li>
<li><em>Non-industrial gas demand was low amid warm weather, but energy is still set to support IP in May. With this effect more substantial and manufacturing appearing to turn quicker, I raise my Q2 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pp to -11% q-o-q.</em></li>
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The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded by 8.1-points in May-20 to 40.7, while the output balance rose 18.7-points to 35. Resurgent demand from industry for gas offtakes from the national grid suggests this is not just a sentiment shift.
Non-industrial gas demand was low amid warm weather, but energy is still set to support IP in May. With this effect more substantial and manufacturing appearing to turn quicker, I raise my Q2 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pp to -11% q-o-q.


UK: Industrial Bounce-Back Begins in May-20