Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

UK: Still Defying Dismally Dire Expectations

UK: Jan-20 Sales Surge Starts to Fix Stats Mess

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Retail sales crashed by 5.1% m-o-m in Mar-20. That refers to an average level between 1 March and 4 April so is still supported by the pre-lockdown period.</li>
<li>Using a lead to daily excess universal credit determinations as a spline, allows us to fit a current sales level for each sub-sector. The revealed change between subsectors ranges between alcohol and clothing up and down over 70% respectively.</li>
<li>Maintaining current estimated levels through April would take total retail sales down another 10%. Updating my GDP forecast for the latest news nudges Q1 down another tenth to 1.1% and Q2 down 1pp to 5%.</li>
</ul>


Retail sales crashed by 5.1% m-o-m in Mar-20. That refers to an average level between 1 March and 4 April so is still supported by the pre-lockdown period.
Using a lead to daily excess universal credit determinations as a spline, allows us to fit a current sales level for each sub-sector. The revealed change between subsectors ranges between alcohol and clothing up and down over 70% respectively.
Maintaining current estimated levels through April would take total retail sales down another 10%. Updating my GDP forecast for the latest news nudges Q1 down another tenth to 1.1% and Q2 down 1pp to 5%.


UK: Mar-20 Sales Reveal Sectoral Level Hits