Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Mar-20 Sales Reveal Sectoral Level Hits

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

UK: Dec-19 Sales Smashed by Statisticians

UK: Bullish Black Friday Effect Hitting Dec-19

UK: Consumers Spending Salary but Losing PPI

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The ONS report that retail sales surged at the start of 2020, by 1.6% m-o-m ex-fuel. However, a failure to correctly adjust for Black Friday’s differential timing has biased up surrounding months after spuriously shrinking sales at year-end.</em></li>
<li><em>Consumer confidence has improved, and trends are reasonably healthy, but the extent of the turnaround is exaggerated. Confirmation of the consumer’s better condition is good news for the BoE, nonetheless.</em></li>
</ul>


The ONS report that retail sales surged at the start of 2020, by 1.6% m-o-m ex-fuel. However, a failure to correctly adjust for Black Friday’s differential timing has biased up surrounding months after spuriously shrinking sales at year-end.
Consumer confidence has improved, and trends are reasonably healthy, but the extent of the turnaround is exaggerated. Confirmation of the consumer’s better condition is good news for the BoE, nonetheless.


UK: Jan-20 Sales Surge Starts to Fix Stats Mess