Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: GDP Normalisation Falls Flat in Jul-22

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP bounced by 0.5% m-o-m in May amid broad-based activity growth. Postponing a bank holiday for the Jubilee may have briefly raised output as it did in 2002.</li>
<li>Activity trends still look broadly flat in 2022 with a worryingly high recession risk. The better May and supportive revisions mean the economy probably grew in Q2.</li>
<li>Given the bank holiday effect, the BoE will need to consider these data relative to the next release. Its August decision focuses more on the news about inflation persistence.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP bounced by 0.5% m-o-m in May amid broad-based activity growth. Postponing a bank holiday for the Jubilee may have briefly raised output as it did in 2002.
Activity trends still look broadly flat in 2022 with a worryingly high recession risk. The better May and supportive revisions mean the economy probably grew in Q2.
Given the bank holiday effect, the BoE will need to consider these data relative to the next release. Its August decision focuses more on the news about inflation persistence.


UK: GDP Bounce With Bonus Working Day