Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: GDP Normalisation Falls Flat in Jul-22

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP disappointingly declined by 0.3% m-o-m in Aug-22. Another bank holiday will depress Sep-22, lowering our Q3 forecast to -0.5% q-o-q.</li>
<li>Output is falling again despite failing to recover its pre-covid level. This performance compares poorly with peers and worsens as the UK’s recession deepens.</li>
<li>In our view, the UK’s relatively weak economy does not justify a more hawkish policy than the Fed, contrary to market pricing. Attempts to keep up exaggerate suffering.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP disappointingly declined by 0.3% m-o-m in Aug-22. Another bank holiday will depress Sep-22, lowering our Q3 forecast to -0.5% q-o-q.
Output is falling again despite failing to recover its pre-covid level. This performance compares poorly with peers and worsens as the UK’s recession deepens.
In our view, the UK’s relatively weak economy does not justify a more hawkish policy than the Fed, contrary to market pricing. Attempts to keep up exaggerate suffering.


UK: GDP Laggard Falls in Aug-22