Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: GDP Normalisation Falls Flat in Jul-22

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP contracted by 0.6% m-o-m in June after a downwardly revised 0.4% growth in May, which appears to confirm the distortions from the Diamond Jubilee holidays.</li>
<li>Some positive payback should occur in July as the output level normalises with the number of working days. However, GDP looks to be trending barely better than flat.</li>
<li>Aggressively increased interest rates will compound inflation’s squeeze on the cycle, raising the risk of a needless recession when pressures are burning out anyway.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP contracted by 0.6% m-o-m in June after a downwardly revised 0.4% growth in May, which appears to confirm the distortions from the Diamond Jubilee holidays.
Some positive payback should occur in July as the output level normalises with the number of working days. However, GDP looks to be trending barely better than flat.
Aggressively increased interest rates will compound inflation’s squeeze on the cycle, raising the risk of a needless recession when pressures are burning out anyway.


UK: Holidays Reduce Output in Jun-22