TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Snapchat's guidedown resulting in a 30% drawdown is fantastical.  6x sales is now 4x sales, near alltime lows.</li>
<li>Was guide down worth 30% drawdown given already valuation compression and  volatility of Snap guidance? Sour grapes here.</li>
<li>Of course macro deteriorated. Who is doing Snap's forecasting? We think forecasting easier to fix than LT competitive moat. We'd buy SNAP...but buy FB first!</li>
</ul>


Snapchat's guidedown resulting in a 30% drawdown is fantastical.  6x sales is now 4x sales, near alltime lows.
Was guide down worth 30% drawdown given already valuation compression and  volatility of Snap guidance? Sour grapes here.
Of course macro deteriorated. Who is doing Snap's forecasting? We think forecasting easier to fix than LT competitive moat. We'd buy SNAP...but buy FB first!


Snapchat Guidedown: Overdone, But Buy FB/AMZN First