Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

Japan Tobacco: Revised Guidance & Growth in the US With Altria JV Could Get The Shares Moving Again

Japan Tobacco: An Activist Targeting Torii Pharmaceutical, Turns to JT to Fulfil Their Wishes

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan Tobacco's 1Q23 performance exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue and OP surpassing by 5.3% and 12.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>Consensus expected no volume growth for Japan Tobacco in declining combustible tobacco market; targeted mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth via pricing.</li>
<li>Higher cigarette prices are expected to contribute to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>'s OP growth, which we anticipate will exceed its historical peak levels in the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Japan Tobacco's 1Q23 performance exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue and OP surpassing by 5.3% and 12.3%, respectively.
Consensus expected no volume growth for Japan Tobacco in declining combustible tobacco market; targeted mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth via pricing.
Higher cigarette prices are expected to contribute to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)'s OP growth, which we anticipate will exceed its historical peak levels in the next few years.


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Potential 62% Upside