Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

2021 High Conviction Seven & I: Major Headwinds Deflected By The Yen Depreciation, Upside Is Limited

Seven & I’s Valuation Nears Breaking Point

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Russia Is Less Than Markets Feared & There’s Upside to DPS Est

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: 50% Upside Potential as Investors Move on From Russia Fears

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s 3Q22 was stronger than expected with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 9.2% and 8.8% respectively through better than expected performance in almost all the markets.</li>
<li>Just as we predicted in our previous insights, JT upgraded its revenue, OP, FCF and DPS guidance by ¥182bn, ¥100bn, ¥77bn and ¥38 respectively sighting stronger volumes and favorable pricing.</li>
<li>We believe this earnings upgrade and a JV with Altria to expand Ploom in the US should get the share price going again after being held back by Russia fears.</li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 3Q22 was stronger than expected with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 9.2% and 8.8% respectively through better than expected performance in almost all the markets.
Just as we predicted in our previous insights, JT upgraded its revenue, OP, FCF and DPS guidance by ¥182bn, ¥100bn, ¥77bn and ¥38 respectively sighting stronger volumes and favorable pricing.
We believe this earnings upgrade and a JV with Altria to expand Ploom in the US should get the share price going again after being held back by Russia fears.


Japan Tobacco: Revised Guidance & Growth in the US With Altria JV Could Get The Shares Moving Again