Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: 50% Upside Potential as Investors Move on From Russia Fears

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Japan Tobacco: Revised Guidance & Growth in the US With Altria JV Could Get The Shares Moving Again

Japan Tobacco 2022 High Conviction Update: Time to Double Down

Japan Tobacco 2022 High Conviction Update: The Russia Ukraine War Impact Is a Bit Overdone

2022 High Conviction - Japan Tobacco: The Comeback Story

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s 1Q22 was stronger than expected with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 5.2% and 20.0% respectively despite the Russia Ukraine war situation.</li>
<li>Although the company has maintained the semi-annual dividend at ¥75.0 per share, we predict there could be an upside to the DPS guidance during the next three quarters.</li>
<li>With OP guidance of ¥534.0bn next year, we think Japan Tobacco should trade around ¥4,000-4,500 per share, indicating an upside of around 82-104%. </li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 1Q22 was stronger than expected with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 5.2% and 20.0% respectively despite the Russia Ukraine war situation.
Although the company has maintained the semi-annual dividend at ¥75.0 per share, we predict there could be an upside to the DPS guidance during the next three quarters.
With OP guidance of ¥534.0bn next year, we think Japan Tobacco should trade around ¥4,000-4,500 per share, indicating an upside of around 82-104%. 


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Russia Is Less Than Markets Feared & There’s Upside to DPS Est