External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all likelihood.</li><li>US data this week includes CPI data tomorrow and Retail Sales data on Thursday and there is the small matter of the FOMC in between.</li><li>Policy decisions are also due from the ECB, BoE and Banxico this week. The USD is holding on to the gains that have accumulated through December so far—despite typically negative seasonal patterns for the USD running into the end of the year. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all likelihood.US data this week includes CPI data tomorrow and Retail Sales data on Thursday and there is the small matter of the FOMC in between.Policy decisions are also due from the ECB, BoE and Banxico this week. The USD is holding on to the gains that have accumulated through December so far—despite typically negative seasonal patterns for the USD running into the end of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Remains Firm, GBP Outperforms

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here.</li><li>Last week wasn’t the best in terms of our trades in the energy space after an otherwise strong year in our tactical bets placed within the sector.</li><li>We have been stopped out of our natural gas trade and our crude oil long is now in the red.</li></ul>

Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here.Last week wasn’t the best in terms of our trades in the energy space after an otherwise strong year in our tactical bets placed within the sector.We have been stopped out of our natural gas trade and our crude oil long is now in the red.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.</li><li>In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.</li><li>Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.</li></ul>

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Western central bankers have made it amply clear that rate cuts are not a given. They remain data dependent. And the data is sending mixed signals.</li>
<li>Meanwhile markets are opting for selective hearing and are pricing sharp rate cuts soon. Inflation is hard to tackle in general. The last mile gets nasty. Are markets ready?</li>
<li>Base effects have contributed to the rapid slowdown in inflation. When these base effects fade, the false sense of safety could crater leading to a very different inflation narrative.</li>
</ul>


Western central bankers have made it amply clear that rate cuts are not a given. They remain data dependent. And the data is sending mixed signals.
Meanwhile markets are opting for selective hearing and are pricing sharp rate cuts soon. Inflation is hard to tackle in general. The last mile gets nasty. Are markets ready?
Base effects have contributed to the rapid slowdown in inflation. When these base effects fade, the false sense of safety could crater leading to a very different inflation narrative.


Rate Cuts: How Much? How Quick? How Real?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.</li><li>It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.</li><li>Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Remains Firm, GBP Outperforms

FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all...

Scotiabank

Energy Cable #49: Ouch …..

Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here. Last week...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a...

Steno Research

Rate Cuts: How Much? How Quick? How Real?

Higher for longer was the mantra for rates. Betting on rate cuts is the in-thing in monetary economics these days. Inflation is known for its head...

Mint Finance

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research. It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our...

Steno Research

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