Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.</li><li>Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.</li><li>While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.</li></ul>

As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.</li>
<li>The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.</li>
<li>115 bps of cuts in 2024.</li>
</ul>


It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.
The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.
115 bps of cuts in 2024.


5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.</li>
<li>The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.</li>
<li>Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.
The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.
Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

<ul><li>Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details</li><li>The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the data</li><li>Several indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures</li></ul>

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the detailsThe FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the dataSeveral indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

<ul><li>As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.</li><li>Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…</li><li>Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.</li></ul>

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Despite aiming for growth, China won’t employ potent fiscal or monetary policies; instead, the focus is on boosting confidence and shaping a...

Steno Research

5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the...

Scotiabank

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details. The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on...

Steno Research

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB...

Steno Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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