Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.</li>
<li>Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.</li>
<li>Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.</li>
</ul>


As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.
Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.
Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.


Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>European banks opted to hold rates steady and their statements were more dovish than the Fed. ECB and BoE statements suggested rates would need to stay elevated for some time. </li>
<li>EU and UK economies are slowing sharply which draws concerns over how long rates can stay elevated without their economies tilting into recession.</li>
<li>UK and EU equities reacted negatively to the announcements while commodities rallied. Bond markets were largely unchanged. EUR and GBP outperformed JPY after the announcements while DXY fell further. </li>
</ul>


European banks opted to hold rates steady and their statements were more dovish than the Fed. ECB and BoE statements suggested rates would need to stay elevated for some time. 
EU and UK economies are slowing sharply which draws concerns over how long rates can stay elevated without their economies tilting into recession.
UK and EU equities reacted negatively to the announcements while commodities rallied. Bond markets were largely unchanged. EUR and GBP outperformed JPY after the announcements while DXY fell further. 


Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.</li><li>The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.</li><li>Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

USD (USD CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Cuts by March? We are not dismissive, but we would deem it close to fantastic if the Fed communications manage to pivot the economy without pushing...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.

Mint Finance

FX Daily - USD Slump Extends After FOMC

USD broadly lower in the wake of the Fed decision; more losses look likely. CAD gains on soft USD fall out. Spot loses squeeze CAD shorts.

Scotiabank

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Cuts by March? We are not dismissive, but we would deem it close to fantastic if the Fed communications manage to pivot the economy without pushing...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

​European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.

Mint Finance

FX Daily - USD Slump Extends After FOMC

USD broadly lower in the wake of the Fed decision; more losses look likely. CAD gains on soft USD fall out. Spot loses squeeze CAD shorts.

Scotiabank

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.