Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Since December 2002, the euro has traded above parity to the USD with the only exception being the last quarter of 2022.</li>
<li>Following central banks rate decisions to pause hikes across both sides of the Atlantic, volatility in the Euro/USD pair is near 12-month lows.</li>
<li>Low volatility equates to lower option premiums. Periods of low volatility offer best opportunity for going long options.</li>
</ul>


Since December 2002, the euro has traded above parity to the USD with the only exception being the last quarter of 2022.
Following central banks rate decisions to pause hikes across both sides of the Atlantic, volatility in the Euro/USD pair is near 12-month lows.
Low volatility equates to lower option premiums. Periods of low volatility offer best opportunity for going long options.


Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.</li><li>The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.</li><li>Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?</li></ul>

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?

5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data.</li><li>The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs were effectively halved ahead of Thanksgiving.</li><li>This week’s data shows another, sizeable reduction in net USD longs of USD3.3bn, taking the aggregate USD long held by Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts to just USD1.8bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data.The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs were effectively halved ahead of Thanksgiving.This week’s data shows another, sizeable reduction in net USD longs of USD3.3bn, taking the aggregate USD long held by Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts to just USD1.8bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Longs Reduced Further

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>JCI’s 13x PE implies room for a rerating if growth improves, while Indonesia’s resilient economic growth offers downside protection.</li><li>Despite our 5% FY24 EPS growth forecast, we see support from more social aid, better liquidity and the next govt’s growth policies.</li><li>We retain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 (+12% upside from the FY23 target); our stock picks are ICBP, MYOR, ISAT, HEAL, BBCA and BMRI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI’s 13x PE implies room for a rerating if growth improves, while Indonesia’s resilient economic growth offers downside protection.Despite our 5% FY24 EPS growth forecast, we see support from more social aid, better liquidity and the next govt’s growth policies.We retain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 (+12% upside from the FY23 target); our stock picks are ICBP, MYOR, ISAT, HEAL, BBCA and BMRI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: FY24 Outlook: The Road to JCI 8,000

United States

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Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

Euro is languishing near 3-week low. Single currency is down 1% this week and on course for the steepest weekly decline since May. Traders are...

Mint Finance

5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Longs Reduced Further

Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data. The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs...

Scotiabank

Equity Strategy: FY24 Outlook: The Road to JCI 8,000

JCI’s 13x PE implies room for a rerating if growth improves, while Indonesia’s resilient economic growth offers downside protection.

BRI Danareksa Research

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