Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policies</li><li>we may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.</li><li>I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..</li></ul>

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policieswe may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation (7%YoY) is at its highest since the Volcker era (June 1982), core CPI inflation (5.5%YoY) its highest since February 1991, driven by 12-14%YoY growth in M2 during 2H21.</li>
<li>The 'disappointing' NFP still brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9% in December 2021, well below the NAIRU, resulting in a 4.7%YoY rise average hourly earnings (wages).  </li>
<li>We expect at least 4 hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year, taking it to 1.25% by end-year, with QE4 likely abandoned at the Jan25-26 FOMC meeting. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation (7%YoY) is at its highest since the Volcker era (June 1982), core CPI inflation (5.5%YoY) its highest since February 1991, driven by 12-14%YoY growth in M2 during 2H21.
The 'disappointing' NFP still brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9% in December 2021, well below the NAIRU, resulting in a 4.7%YoY rise average hourly earnings (wages).  
We expect at least 4 hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year, taking it to 1.25% by end-year, with QE4 likely abandoned at the Jan25-26 FOMC meeting. 


US: Tight Labour Market and Still-Abundant M2 Make for an Inflationary Cocktail

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX call to reduce at 4,800 met our 4,600 buy pattern/trend support as did the NDX at 15,300 that sets up a rally sequence. SPX pivot resistance at 4,712/40.</li>
<li>Mid January a fresh retreat is due in late January ahead of a more bullish February cycle on the back of a yield lull and resumption of yield strength.</li>
<li>NDX rally will be used to re short near resistance as tech remains a weak link in the face of rising yields (banks the beneficiary).</li>
</ul>


SPX call to reduce at 4,800 met our 4,600 buy pattern/trend support as did the NDX at 15,300 that sets up a rally sequence. SPX pivot resistance at 4,712/40.
Mid January a fresh retreat is due in late January ahead of a more bullish February cycle on the back of a yield lull and resumption of yield strength.
NDX rally will be used to re short near resistance as tech remains a weak link in the face of rising yields (banks the beneficiary).


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has posted a bearish weekly reversal at the trend high</li>
<li>This was last seen in the middle of November from where we continued lower the following week</li>
<li>What is more concerning this time is the momentum divergence reflecting weakness in the uptrend.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has posted a bearish weekly reversal at the trend high
This was last seen in the middle of November from where we continued lower the following week
What is more concerning this time is the momentum divergence reflecting weakness in the uptrend.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chair Powell eyes March to raise the federal funds rate, but pressure to delay has risen. The Fed is keen not to fall behind the inflation curve in 2022.</li>
<li>Inflation forecasts could be critical in determining whether Fed policy guidance requires further hawkish adjustment. Labour market developments will, however, not be entirely overlooked in terms of adjusting policy settings. </li>
<li>Fed policy lowered the equity risk premium and boosted equity valuations. Lack of Fed intervention in US Treasuries means outsized US equity portfolio gains will depend on stock picking.   </li>
</ul>


Fed Chair Powell eyes March to raise the federal funds rate, but pressure to delay has risen. The Fed is keen not to fall behind the inflation curve in 2022.
Inflation forecasts could be critical in determining whether Fed policy guidance requires further hawkish adjustment. Labour market developments will, however, not be entirely overlooked in terms of adjusting policy settings. 
Fed policy lowered the equity risk premium and boosted equity valuations. Lack of Fed intervention in US Treasuries means outsized US equity portfolio gains will depend on stock picking.   


Hawkish Fed in 2022: Boosting the Importance of Stock Picking as Valuations Receive Less Support

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Vikings At The Gate

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

US: Tight Labour Market and Still-Abundant M2 Make for an Inflationary Cocktail

M2 continued growing 12-14%YoY in Jul-Nov2021 (after 24%YoY growth in Jul-Nov2020). With unemployment down to 3.9%, inflation has surged. We expect...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SPX and NDX Met Buy Target Levels

SPX call to reduce at 4,800 met our 4,600 buy pattern/trend support as did the NDX at 15,300 that sets up a rally sequence. SPX pivot resistance at...

Thomas Schroeder

S&P 500 Weekly Reversal

Price action on the S&P 500 indicates some short term weakness before stabilising. This chart gives three price targets which should be watched...

Shyam Devani

Hawkish Fed in 2022: Boosting the Importance of Stock Picking as Valuations Receive Less Support

Fed policy in 2022 could change if inflation and labour market conditions warrant greater caution. US equity valuations will receive less support,...

DeSaque Macro Research