House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&amp;P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the worst indices on a global basis</li>
<li>Indeed the value rotation is still in place, and the performance gap between value and growth stocks is widening</li>
<li>I think that the current interest rate increase could be close to the peak</li>
</ul>


The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&amp;P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the worst indices on a global basis
Indeed the value rotation is still in place, and the performance gap between value and growth stocks is widening
I think that the current interest rate increase could be close to the peak


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>US equity investors' expectations have been fickle by failing to appreciate that there would be payback demanded by the Fed for their unprecedented policy easing during the COVID-19 pandemic.</li>
<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be pleased to witness the recent correction in equity prices and will view price declines as a signal of policy credibility.</li>
<li>US equities remain vulnerable to liquidity contraction. Housing has also boosted households' wealth, and the Fed would provide policy support if home and equity prices fell simultaneously.    </li>
</ul>


US equity investors' expectations have been fickle by failing to appreciate that there would be payback demanded by the Fed for their unprecedented policy easing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be pleased to witness the recent correction in equity prices and will view price declines as a signal of policy credibility.
US equities remain vulnerable to liquidity contraction. Housing has also boosted households' wealth, and the Fed would provide policy support if home and equity prices fell simultaneously.    


Fed Unperturbed by Equity Market Declines as Housing Cushions the Blow to Households' Net Worth

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have hit decent supports</li>
<li>This has come after the rise in yields has started to slow down</li>
<li>At this stage it appears at least a short term bounce may be seen. It is too soon to determine anything more than that</li>
</ul>


Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have hit decent supports
This has come after the rise in yields has started to slow down
At this stage it appears at least a short term bounce may be seen. It is too soon to determine anything more than that


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.</li>
<li>Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.</li>
<li>Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.
Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.
Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

2022: False start for U.S. equities

The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the...

Market Radar

Fed Unperturbed by Equity Market Declines as Housing Cushions the Blow to Households' Net Worth

Equity investors should not be shocked by the Fed's rate guidance after unprecedented action during the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy relief will occur...

DeSaque Macro Research

US Equities: A Small Squeeze?

Having hit decent supports, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Indices look like they will bounce. At this juncture the indications should be taken as...

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

The market continues to send mixed signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials,...

Vermilion Research

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani