Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed was unable to avoid pivoting more hawkishly due to elevated inflation. Economic growth will be stronger than previously envisaged next year, thereby justifying the Fed's policy outlook.</li>
<li>The omicron variant of COVID-19 introduces economic uncertainty but also policy conduct optionality for the Fed. Policy could be put on hold while its impact is properly assessed.</li>
<li>Moderate Democrats have criticised the Fed for their inaction against rising inflation, fearing more drastic action will eventually be needed in the run-up to next year's mid-term elections</li>
</ul>


The Fed was unable to avoid pivoting more hawkishly due to elevated inflation. Economic growth will be stronger than previously envisaged next year, thereby justifying the Fed's policy outlook.
The omicron variant of COVID-19 introduces economic uncertainty but also policy conduct optionality for the Fed. Policy could be put on hold while its impact is properly assessed.
Moderate Democrats have criticised the Fed for their inaction against rising inflation, fearing more drastic action will eventually be needed in the run-up to next year's mid-term elections


Fed’s Hawkish Pivot: Heavily Dependent on Economic Outcomes Matching Forecasts

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next year</li><li>The Fed will accelerate the tapering (from $15 Bln to $30 Bln) and its officials now expect to raise interest rates three times next year and three times in 2023</li><li>The ECB has been probably the most dovish among the central banks: it left key rates unchanged and it doesn’t foresee to raise them in 2022</li></ul>

This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next yearThe Fed will accelerate the tapering (from $15 Bln to $30 Bln) and its officials now expect to raise interest rates three times next year and three times in 2023The ECB has been probably the most dovish among the central banks: it left key rates unchanged and it doesn’t foresee to raise them in 2022

The week of the Central Banks: expectations, surprises and reactions

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A solid rally off of 4,600 support needs to clear 4,712 to reach for bull targets as the rally window begins to narrow ahead of the 24th cycle timeline.</li>
<li>Near rally projection at SPX 4,735/47 and will then need to hold above 4,712 that would allow for a push toward the ideal top zone. Europe and Asia will lag.</li>
<li>Into a minor new SPX high we will then be stepping up short exposure in weaker indices. DJI And NDX probable dual tops will weigh on breadth.</li>
</ul>


A solid rally off of 4,600 support needs to clear 4,712 to reach for bull targets as the rally window begins to narrow ahead of the 24th cycle timeline.
Near rally projection at SPX 4,735/47 and will then need to hold above 4,712 that would allow for a push toward the ideal top zone. Europe and Asia will lag.
Into a minor new SPX high we will then be stepping up short exposure in weaker indices. DJI And NDX probable dual tops will weigh on breadth.


SPX Impulse off of Long Support, Next Hurdle

<ul><li>Just few days ago everyone seemed terrified of the arrival of the Omicron variant, and investor rapidly turned defensive, selling risky assets and buying safe havens</li><li>This week everything looks back to normality: investors bought the dip once again</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 this time didn’t even have a drawdown higher than 5%.</li></ul>

Just few days ago everyone seemed terrified of the arrival of the Omicron variant, and investor rapidly turned defensive, selling risky assets and buying safe havensThis week everything looks back to normality: investors bought the dip once againThe S&amp;P 500 this time didn’t even have a drawdown higher than 5%.

<ul>
<li>We have remained bullish to buy risk near SPX 4,500 for a rally into mid-December and have a high conviction top zone in the cards.</li>
<li>December 15-20 is the timeline to watch for a peak in risk assets ahead of a late December draw down.</li>
<li>DJI is our short vehicle with a bet for a dual top as the SPX chisels out a minor new high.</li>
</ul>


We have remained bullish to buy risk near SPX 4,500 for a rally into mid-December and have a high conviction top zone in the cards.
December 15-20 is the timeline to watch for a peak in risk assets ahead of a late December draw down.
DJI is our short vehicle with a bet for a dual top as the SPX chisels out a minor new high.


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Fed’s Hawkish Pivot: Heavily Dependent on Economic Outcomes Matching Forecasts

The Fed's hawkish policy tilt was discounted, but conduct remains data dependent. Arrival of the omicron COVID-19 variant imparts policy...

DeSaque Macro Research

The week of the Central Banks: expectations, surprises and reactions

This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next year

Market Radar

SPX Impulse off of Long Support, Next Hurdle

A solid rally off of 4,600 support needs to clear 4,712 to reach for bull targets as the rally window begins to close ahead of the 24th cycle...

Thomas Schroeder

Investors bought the dip, once again

Just few days ago everyone seemed terrified of the arrival of the Omicron variant, and investor rapidly turned defensive, selling risky assets and...

Market Radar

SPX Mid December Peak Target

We have remained bullish to buy risk near SPX 4,500 for a rally into mid-December and have a high conviction top zone in the cards.

Thomas Schroeder