Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.</li>
<li>The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. </li>
<li>Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.</li>
</ul>


Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.
The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. 
Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.


Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58</li>
<li>The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week</li>
<li>This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months</li>
</ul>


The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58
The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week
This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months


The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.</li>
<li>RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.</li>
<li>DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. <strong>US Macro is bearish in Q2.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.
RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.
DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. US Macro is bearish in Q2.



US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

<ul>
<li>Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.</li>
<li>This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.</li>
<li>Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).</li>
</ul>


Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.
This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.
Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).


U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

The Ukraine fear premium in crude is now substantial, with Brent hitting a 7-year peak above $90. Our base case remains a de-escalation of the...

Vandana Hari

The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

The break higher n Crude has come with strong bullish price action. Further gains towards $115+ are likely over the coming weeks and months

Shyam Devani

US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Indexes continue to violate our key supports on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). Most opportunities...

Vermilion Research