Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US Tech &amp; AI to old-school stuff.</li>
<li>Energy, Materials and Commodities are our favorites on a risk/reward basis.</li>
<li>Our models here keep getting backed by hard data and with commodities- our thesis here is a temporary rebound in Manufacturing:Chart 1: ISM Manufacturing, Order/InventoryWith Goldilocks data ramping up, we have enjoyed some nice green tailwinds to the book.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US Tech &amp; AI to old-school stuff.
Energy, Materials and Commodities are our favorites on a risk/reward basis.
Our models here keep getting backed by hard data and with commodities- our thesis here is a temporary rebound in Manufacturing:Chart 1: ISM Manufacturing, Order/InventoryWith Goldilocks data ramping up, we have enjoyed some nice green tailwinds to the book.


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.</li>
<li>If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.</li>
<li>Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Summer Lull

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into Frenzy territory aggressively, suggesting a pullback in equity markets is upon us.</li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and the S&amp;P 500 Index, the latest drop to 46 suggests an index level of 3,400.</li>
<li>This week, we highlight the chart showing the change in the number of bankruptcies and the spread on US high-yield bonds. Where did spreads go?</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into Frenzy territory aggressively, suggesting a pullback in equity markets is upon us.
Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and the S&amp;P 500 Index, the latest drop to 46 suggests an index level of 3,400.
This week, we highlight the chart showing the change in the number of bankruptcies and the spread on US high-yield bonds. Where did spreads go?


The Weekly Market Monitor (27) – Will the Bull Survive?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Portfolio Watch: Surfing the Boomer Wave

Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US...

Steno Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

Market Reversal Matrix (MRM)'s analysis of the Nikkei 225 WEEKLY support levels + probability of trend reversal for the coming weeks, in case the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Summer Lull

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor (27) – Will the Bull Survive?

If markets stop being driven by sentiment and focus on the broader macro environment, downside in equities and other risky assets becomes abundant.

Jeroen Blokland