Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Quantitative Researcher

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Rising but May Encounter Short-Term Resistance

Lead Shorts, Where to Cover and Re Set Longs.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.</li>
<li>If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.</li>
<li>Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)