Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.</li>
<li>As explained by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.</li>
<li>The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical <strong>weakness</strong>.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.


Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Independent Financial Broker

<ul><li>1M Implied volatility down 3.39 at 24.77 as the Nikkei 225 index stabilizes.</li><li>Higher correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.    </li><li>Increasing interest on short term upside calls to play the recovery.</li></ul>

1M Implied volatility down 3.39 at 24.77 as the Nikkei 225 index stabilizes.Higher correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.    Increasing interest on short term upside calls to play the recovery.

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

<ul><li>The Nikkei 225 dividend curve is stabilizing after the recent sell off.                            </li><li>Increasing volumes mostly on 2025 dividend futures.</li><li>Nikkei 225 dividend yield is stabilizing at 2.15%.</li></ul>

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve is stabilizing after the recent sell off.                            Increasing volumes mostly on 2025 dividend futures.Nikkei 225 dividend yield is stabilizing at 2.15%.

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>We assess the effectiveness of short volatility versus long volatility positioning.</li>
<li>Nikkei’s performance relative to SPX is analyzed across three distinct time frames.</li>
<li>Volatility remained muted ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting, while option volumes increased week over week.</li>
</ul>


We assess the effectiveness of short volatility versus long volatility positioning.
Nikkei’s performance relative to SPX is analyzed across three distinct time frames.
Volatility remained muted ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting, while option volumes increased week over week.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–14): Assessing Long Vs. Short Vol Strategies & Returns Vs. SPX

<ul>
<li>Volumes increased sharply as dealers roll from Mar25 to Jun25 before Friday’s SQ.</li>
<li>NK &amp; TP Rolls collapsed following indices cash spot</li>
<li>Current Roll Levels: NK MAR25/JUN25 ROLL -252/-251, TP MAR25/JUN25 ROLL -26.8/-26.7</li>
</ul>


Volumes increased sharply as dealers roll from Mar25 to Jun25 before Friday’s SQ.
NK &amp; TP Rolls collapsed following indices cash spot
Current Roll Levels: NK MAR25/JUN25 ROLL -252/-251, TP MAR25/JUN25 ROLL -26.8/-26.7


Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update: 12 March 2025

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

After the minimal index rebalance in early March 2025, the Nikkei 225 began a modest rally from its lows, showing short-term weakness that could...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

1M Implied volatility down 3.39 at 24.77 as the Nikkei 225 index stabilizes. Higher correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated. Increasing...

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve is stabilizing after the recent sell off. Increasing volumes mostly on 2025 dividend futures.

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–14): Assessing Long Vs. Short Vol Strategies & Returns Vs. SPX

Analysis of short versus long volatility positioning and comparison of Nikkei's performance to SPX across different time frames. Option Volume...

John Ley

Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update: 12 March 2025

Volumes increased sharply as dealers roll from Mar25 to Jun25 before Friday’s SQ. NK & TP Rolls collapsed following indices cash spot Current...

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

After the minimal index rebalance in early March 2025, the Nikkei 225 began a modest rally from its lows, showing short-term weakness that could...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

1M Implied volatility down 3.39 at 24.77 as the Nikkei 225 index stabilizes. Higher correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated. Increasing...

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 7th – Mar 14th)

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve is stabilizing after the recent sell off. Increasing volumes mostly on 2025 dividend futures.

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–14): Assessing Long Vs. Short Vol Strategies & Returns Vs. SPX

​Analysis of short versus long volatility positioning and comparison of Nikkei's performance to SPX across different time frames. Option Volume...

John Ley

Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update: 12 March 2025

Volumes increased sharply as dealers roll from Mar25 to Jun25 before Friday’s SQ. NK & TP Rolls collapsed following indices cash spot Current...

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Analysis of short versus long volatility positioning and comparison of Nikkei's performance to SPX across different time frames. Option Volume...