Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets</li>
<li>Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued' because of uncertainty, but gold is truly a Global Liquidity barometer</li>
<li>Global Liquidity is 'tight' and weak gold, flat yield curves, sluming EM equities and skidding cryptocurrencies confirm this</li>
<li>Gold is particularly sensitive to Central Bank liquidity injections. A recession in 2019 could be the trigger for a renewed policy easing, but until then we favour avoiding the bullion market</li>
</ul>


Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets
Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued' because of uncertainty, but gold is truly a Global Liquidity barometer
Global Liquidity is 'tight' and weak gold, flat yield curves, sluming EM equities and skidding cryptocurrencies confirm this
Gold is particularly sensitive to Central Bank liquidity injections. A recession in 2019 could be the trigger for a renewed policy easing, but until then we favour avoiding the bullion market


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted.  These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to strengthen as inflation pressure builds and oil prices rise to new highs.  EUR has dropped on Italian budget risks.  Eurozone core inflation slipped in September and economic survey data remain subdued. Event risk is too high to want to buy EUR yet.  USD/JPY may be up on higher US yields and some relief in EM markets.  JPY may also be weaker in line with the CNY and higher oil prices.  However, USD/JPY is approaching key resistance, the Nikkei is relatively strong, and Japanese inflation pressure may be higher than widely perceived.  The fall in AUD despite high energy prices is helping support the Australian trade balance, government balance and overall economy.  The Australian economy has out-performed official forecasts in the first half of the year and supports the case that the next move in rates will be higher.  However, risks emanating from China, US trade policy, EM markets and Australia’s housing market continue to undermine confidence in the AUD.</em></p>

CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted.  These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to strengthen as inflation pressure builds and oil prices rise to new highs.  EUR has dropped on Italian budget risks.  Eurozone core inflation slipped in September and economic survey data remain subdued. Event risk is too high to want to buy EUR yet.  USD/JPY may be up on higher US yields and some relief in EM markets.  JPY may also be weaker in line with the CNY and higher oil prices.  However, USD/JPY is approaching key resistance, the Nikkei is relatively strong, and Japanese inflation pressure may be higher than widely perceived.  The fall in AUD despite high energy prices is helping support the Australian trade balance, government balance and overall economy.  The Australian economy has out-performed official forecasts in the first half of the year and supports the case that the next move in rates will be higher.  However, risks emanating from China, US trade policy, EM markets and Australia’s housing market continue to undermine confidence in the AUD.

Clouds Clear for CAD, but Shroud EUR and AUD

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>SYNTHESIS</strong></p><h2>1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:</h2><ul>
<li>THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.</li>
<li>The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.</li>
</ul><h2>2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:</h2><ul>
<li>USDTHB bearish trend still valid.</li>
<li>THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.</li>
</ul><h2>3.    Bullish Thailand equities :</h2><ul><li>SET index expected to rise by 20/22%.</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>RECOMMENDATION</strong></p><p>TIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent</p><p> </p><ul>
<li> Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.</li>
<li>Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.</li>
<li>Long THBHKD and THBJPY.</li>
</ul>

SYNTHESIS1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:
THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.
The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.
2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:
USDTHB bearish trend still valid.
THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.
3.    Bullish Thailand equities :SET index expected to rise by 20/22%. RECOMMENDATIONTIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent 
 Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.
Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.
Long THBHKD and THBJPY.


Thailand: Receiver Swaps, Appreciation of the THB

<p><em>Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks.  Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese equities ahead of these talks, helping stabilise Asian markets.  Turkish asset markets remain in deep distress, notwithstanding some rebound in the TRL.  Italian markets are also likely to display ongoing stress.  Combined with fears over US sanctions on Iran Russia and Turkey, these risk factors are likely to prevent a significant recovery in EUR.  US bond yields have slipped in recent weeks, and we see increased risk that global market uncertainty generates negative feedback to US asset markets and economic confidence. More stable Asian asset markets, but ongoing heightened global uncertainty, particularly in Europe, may contribute to more sustained gains in the JPY.  Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and accusations of foreign currency manipulation may tend to further undermine global economic confidence and support the JPY.</em></p>

Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks.  Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese equities ahead of these talks, helping stabilise Asian markets.  Turkish asset markets remain in deep distress, notwithstanding some rebound in the TRL.  Italian markets are also likely to display ongoing stress.  Combined with fears over US sanctions on Iran Russia and Turkey, these risk factors are likely to prevent a significant recovery in EUR.  US bond yields have slipped in recent weeks, and we see increased risk that global market uncertainty generates negative feedback to US asset markets and economic confidence. More stable Asian asset markets, but ongoing heightened global uncertainty, particularly in Europe, may contribute to more sustained gains in the JPY.  Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and accusations of foreign currency manipulation may tend to further undermine global economic confidence and support the JPY.

USD Facing a Negative Feedback Loop, JPY Placed to Benefit More than EUR

Political analyst

Aaron Timms

<p>An election to decide the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will be held in late September. Should Shinzo Abe lose he will likely step down from the prime ministership, even though the next general election is not due until 2021. Beyond the short-term impact on JPY, an Abe resignation would also significantly alter the course of Japanese economic policy, despite a measure of continuity in monetary affairs guaranteed by the recent reappointment of BoJ governor Haruhiko…</p>

An election to decide the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will be held in late September. Should Shinzo Abe lose he will likely step down from the prime ministership, even though the next general election is not due until 2021. Beyond the short-term impact on JPY, an Abe resignation would also significantly alter the course of Japanese economic policy, despite a measure of continuity in monetary affairs guaranteed by the recent reappointment of BoJ governor Haruhiko…

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Is Gold Bullion About To Break-Out?

Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued'...

Michael J. Howell

Clouds Clear for CAD, but Shroud EUR and AUD

CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted. These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to...

Greg Gibbs

Thailand: Receiver Swaps, Appreciation of the THB

SYNTHESIS1. Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve: THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps. The 1-5y THB swap curve is...

Guillaume Coutant

USD Facing a Negative Feedback Loop, JPY Placed to Benefit More than EUR

Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks. Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese...

Greg Gibbs

Abe's Reelection Is No Sure Thing

An election to decide the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will be held in late September. Should Shinzo Abe lose he...

Aaron Timms

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