Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The Dollar/Yen has tested the target area for wave C down in an A-B-C-D-E triangle, at 102.06-105.53.  An 8-week oversold condition similar to mid-2016 is beginning to form, and the daily indicators are oversold with bullish divergence appearing, but both sets would certainly allow a move deeper into that target zone.  In addition, the very short-term wave count down from the recent high above 110 looks like a 5-wave drop in its middle stages.  A further period of volatile downward drift looks…

The Dollar/Yen has tested the target area for wave C down in an A-B-C-D-E triangle, at 102.06-105.53.  An 8-week oversold condition similar to mid-2016 is beginning to form, and the daily indicators are oversold with bullish divergence appearing, but both sets would certainly allow a move deeper into that target zone.  In addition, the very short-term wave count down from the recent high above 110 looks like a 5-wave drop in its middle stages.  A further period of volatile downward drift looks…

Dollar/Yen: Nearing Downside Target Area, but Not Quite Finished

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
<li>
Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

Appointing Mr. Wakatabe as one of the next two BoJ vice-governors is a bullish move for risk assets by the Japanese government. On February 16, the Japanese government announced that they intend to re-appoint Haruhiko Kuroda as the BoJ governor and Mr. Masazumi Wakatabe, a university professor, and Mr. Masayoshi Amamiya, a career BoJ official, as the two new vice-governors.  A Waseda University professor, Mr. Wakatabe has argued that adoption of radical monetary policies such as helicopter money…

Appointing Mr. Wakatabe as one of the next two BoJ vice-governors is a bullish move for risk assets by the Japanese government. On February 16, the Japanese government announced that they intend to re-appoint Haruhiko Kuroda as the BoJ governor and Mr. Masazumi Wakatabe, a university professor, and Mr. Masayoshi Amamiya, a career BoJ official, as the two new vice-governors.   A Waseda University professor, Mr. Wakatabe has argued that adoption of radical monetary policies such as helicopter money…

According to Cabinet Office, the Japanese economy grew by 0.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ), or at an annualized rate of 0.5%. The headline number looks weak, but contents of the breakdown are less alarming as we explain below.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/547/original/jma_chart_png_undefined_0.png?1518580997" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44547"></figure>Among domestic demands, both private consumption and private capital expenditure grew robustly in the quarter. Private consumption grew at the annualized rate of 1.9%, and private capital expenditure by 2.8%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/561/original/jma_chart_png_undefined_0%20%286%29.png?1518589623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44561"></figure>What pulled the overall growth down was a surge in imports. Imports…

According to Cabinet Office, the Japanese economy grew by 0.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ), or at an annualized rate of 0.5%. The headline number looks weak, but contents of the breakdown are less alarming as we explain below.Among domestic demands, both private consumption and private capital expenditure grew robustly in the quarter. Private consumption grew at the annualized rate of 1.9%, and private capital expenditure by 2.8%.What pulled the overall growth down was a surge in imports. Imports…

Japan: Weak GDP Headline Hides Healthier Growth

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Dollar/Yen: Nearing Downside Target Area, but Not Quite Finished

The Dollar/Yen has tested the target area for wave C down in an A-B-C-D-E triangle, at 102.06-105.53. An 8-week oversold condition similar to...

Peter Beuttell

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

A Bullish Pick for BoJ Vice-Governors

Appointing Mr. Wakatabe as one of the next two BoJ vice-governors is a bullish move for risk assets by the Japanese government. On February 16, the...

Takuji Okubo

Japan: Weak GDP Headline Hides Healthier Growth

According to Cabinet Office, the Japanese economy grew by 0.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ), or at an annualized rate of 0.5%. The headline number...

Takuji Okubo

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five...

Takuji Okubo

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