Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.  An exit from the current…

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.   An exit from the current…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view, while somewhat expected, this is very timely news for Japanese asset markets, which have also been caught up in the global equity market sell-off of the last week. While JGBs have largely been shielded from the volatility as a result of BoJ buying, Japanese stock market indices have been hit hard by position liquidation. News that Kuroda will continue…

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view, while somewhat expected, this is very timely news for Japanese asset markets, which have also been caught up in the global equity market sell-off of the last week. While JGBs have largely been shielded from the volatility as a result of BoJ buying, Japanese stock market indices have been hit hard by position liquidation. News that Kuroda will continue…

Japan: Kuroda Stays, Focus on Fiscal Reform

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree that it is the most believable story. Prime Minister Abe has consistently supported Mr. Kuroda and has implied that he would want him to continue. Mr. Kuroda has said nothing to indicate a possibility that he may refuse if re-appointed. Is there any chance of a surprise?   There are some reasons to think Mr. Kuroda may not be the best man for the job. The…

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree that it is the most believable story. Prime Minister Abe has consistently supported Mr. Kuroda and has implied that he would want him to continue. Mr. Kuroda has said nothing to indicate a possibility that he may refuse if re-appointed. Is there any chance of a surprise?    There are some reasons to think Mr. Kuroda may not be the best man for the job. The…

The Next BoJ Governor, What If It Is Not Kuroda?

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

We follow our warning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-trump-s-black-elephant" target="_blank">Mr Trump’s Black Elephant </a>- which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic activity (see the last few days' market action) - with positive news. Regardless of events in US markets, we are confident of yet another year of Asian equity outperformance.While the US economy may hold the ‘black swan’ key to US stock market performance there are a couple of non-consensus events in Asia this year that we think are highly likely.

We follow our warning in Mr Trump’s Black Elephant - which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic activity (see the last few days' market action) - with positive news. Regardless of events in US markets, we are confident of yet another year of Asian equity outperformance.While the US economy may hold the ‘black swan’ key to US stock market performance there are a couple of non-consensus events in Asia this year that we think are highly likely.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Kuroda's Next 5 Years

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April...

Takuji Okubo

Japan: Kuroda Stays, Focus on Fiscal Reform

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view,...

Callum Henderson

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest...

Michael J. Howell

The Next BoJ Governor, What If It Is Not Kuroda?

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree...

Takuji Okubo

Asia's Grey Swans

We follow our warning in Mr Trump’s Black Elephant - which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic...

Dr. Jim Walker

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