Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.</li>
<li>Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.</li>
</ul>


This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.
The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. Our model suggests it has entered a price zone where a reversal is highly likely.</li>
<li>Thursday's closing low of 19,225 falls within a price zone where our WEEKLY NDX model assigns a 97% probability of reversal. It's clearly in the tail area and deeply oversold.</li>
<li>When the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq 100</a> declines for 4 consecutive weeks, our time model assigns a 98% probability of reversal based on the current historical pattern.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. Our model suggests it has entered a price zone where a reversal is highly likely.
Thursday's closing low of 19,225 falls within a price zone where our WEEKLY NDX model assigns a 97% probability of reversal. It's clearly in the tail area and deeply oversold.
When the Nasdaq 100 declines for 4 consecutive weeks, our time model assigns a 98% probability of reversal based on the current historical pattern.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 INDEX</a> started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.</li>
<li>The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside...</li>
<li>A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside...
A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) </a>dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.</li>
<li>Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.</li>
<li>Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.
Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.
Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.


EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)</a> selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. </li>
<li>The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.
</li>
<li>High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.
</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. 
The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.

High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.



EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

The Nasdaq-100 Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching a deeply oversold level according to our model. A reversal from this price...

Nico Rosti

Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?

The Nasdaq-100 Index is very oversold DAILY and WEEKLY according to our models, but while a DAILY reversal is imminent, the WEEKLY may take longer...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

​Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

The Nasdaq-100 Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching a deeply oversold level according to our model. A reversal from this price...

Nico Rosti

Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?

​The Nasdaq-100 Index is very oversold DAILY and WEEKLY according to our models, but while a DAILY reversal is imminent, the WEEKLY may take longer...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

​The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

​Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

The Nasdaq-100 Index is very oversold DAILY and WEEKLY according to our models, but while a DAILY reversal is imminent, the WEEKLY may take longer...

The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...